Numerical Model: Navy Coastal Ocean Model - 1/20 degree resolution, 60 vertical sigma/z-levels.
The model is initialized by assimilating MODAS3D temperature and salinity profiles to July 8, 2005 0:00Z and then integrated without data assimilation to July 12, 2005 0:00Z. For more information on the model see the COAPS Gulf of Mexico Project web pages.

Model Domain: The Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea

Model Forcing: Data from the NHC HWIND fields and the SeaWinds/QuikSCAT scatterometer are objectively gridded using the NCEP Reanalysis 2 fields as a background constraint (Morey et al, 2005, JGR-In Press). These 10m wind fields and the NCEP Reanalysis 2 2m air temperatures are input with the model SST to an atmospheric flux model based on the Bourassa-Vincent-Wood flux model to calculate surface momentum, latent, and sensible heat fluxes.

Wind and Sea Level animation
Viewable with Quicktime
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The model shows that a shelf wave with a positive sea level anomaly of 50-100cm was generated ahead of the storm. This affected Apalachee bay through a remote forcing mechanism that was additional to the locally generated storm surge. Previous studies suggest that large sea level gradients associated with the storm surge occur within a few kilometers of the coast and these gradients are unresolved at the present model resolution. A high-resolution nested modeling system is being developed to more accurately simulate the local storm surge with coupling to the large scale model. The model will be run with a new wind field with improved resolution to more accurately represent the HWIND fields.

S.L. Morey
D.S. Dukhovskoy