2004 LOM Workshop

Wednesday 11:00 - 11:20 a.m.

Previous Abstract | Next Abstract

Ensemble forecasting and the ocean's mesoscale

Arne Melsom
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
arne.melsom@met.no

ABSTRACT

A study using HYCOM has been conducted in order to assess the relative contributions to oceanic variability from (1) the deterministic response to atmospheric forcing and (2) the nondeterministic response due to flow instabilities. Two sets of ensemble simulations have been performed. The sets differ in the horizontal resolution, which were set to 9km (coarse resolution experiment, CRE) and 4.5km (fine resolution experiment, FRE), respectively. CRE and FRE are made up of 8 and 6 ensemble members, respectively. Individual members differ in their initial conditions only. Topics that will be discussed include (i) relations between model resolution and the degree of deterministic variability, (ii) no. of ensemble members and statistical convergence, and (iii) relations between deterministic variability and the magnitude of atmospheric forcing. More information can be found on the project's web site, http://ensemble.met.no

Return to Agenda

LOM Users' Workshop, February 9-11, 2004