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Observed and Simulated Variability of the North Atlantic Sub-Polar Gyre
Helge Drange, Hjalmar Hatun, Anne Britt Sandø
Nansen Center, Bjerknes Centre, and Univ. of Bergen
(Abstract received 07/17/2007 for session X)
ABSTRACT
During the past decade, record-high salinities have been observed in the Atlantic Inflow to the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean, which feeds the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). This may counteract the observed long-term increase in freshwater supply to the area and tend to stabilize the North Atlantic THC. Based on a hind-cast simulation of MICOM we demonstrate that the salinity of the Atlantic Inflow is tightly linked to the dynamics of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre circulation. Therefore, when assessing the future of the North Atlantic THC, it is essential that the dynamics of the subpolar gyre and its influence on the salinity are taken into account. Furthermore, since 1995, major shifts in phytoplanton, zooplankton and fish stocks have taken place in the same region. The model strongly suggest that the remarkable shift in the marine biota after 1995 is a consequence of the decline in the circulation of the subpolar gyre.
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2007 LOM Workshop, Bergen, Norway, August 20-22, 2007