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Quantifying uncertainty in the fate of oil discharged from the Deep Water Horizon accident using Polynomial Chaos expansions
A. Srinivasan, M. Iskandarani, W. C. Thacker, O. M. Knio
University of Miami
(Abstract received 01/10/2011 for session X)
ABSTRACT
An estimate of the confidence in model predictions is vital for decision support in environmental disasters such as the Deep Water Horizon accident. We present an application of the Polynomial Chaos approach to quantify uncertainty in the modeled time history of oil discharged as a result of the Deep Water Horizon accident. Using Polynomial Chaos expansions the solution to a stochastic system with uncertain inputs is obtained as functionals of input (parameterized as random variables) using which the true distribution of the solution can be approximated. In this application, uncertainties in currents and turbulent diffusivities derived from a HYCOM configured for the Gulf of Mexico are propagated through a 3D oil model using the polynomial chaos approach. The results from the polynomial chaos solutions are presented and compared with a Monte Carlo solution.
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2011 LOM Workshop, Miami, Florida February 7 - 9, 2011