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Seasonal-to-decadal prediction with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model
Francois Counillon, Ingo Bethke, Yiguo Wang, Noel Keenlyside, Mao-Lin Chen
NERSC
(Abstract received 04/21/2015 for session X)
ABSTRACT
Skillful predictions on inter-annual to decadal timescales can fill the present scientific and mitigation gaps between the established fields of seasonal forecasting and future climate change projection. Up to decadal time scale, climate prediction skill depends on the accuracy of the initial conditions and in particularly of the ocean. Initialization of the ocean in a fully coupled system is challenging because the only ocean observation available to demonstrate its skill over a sufficiently long period of time to be significant with decadal timescale is sea surface temperature (SST). The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) assimilates the stochastic HadISST2 product with the Deterministic ensemble Kalman Filter into the ocean part of a CIMP5 fully coupled ESM (Norwegian Earth System model, medium resolution). A modification of the state vector is applied to ensure conservation of the assimilation method with the Lagrangian coordinate ocean model (MICOM). The system is demonstrated in hindcast mode for the period 1980-2005 were independent observations are available. The system shows skill for independent observations during analysis and prediction.
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2015 LOM Workshop, Copenhagen, Denmark June 2nd - 4th, 2015