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Author Baigorria, G.; Jones, J.; Shin, D.; Mishra, A.; Ingram, K. T., Jones, J. W., O'Brien, J. J., Roncoli, M. C., Fraisse, C., Breuer, N. E., Bartels, W.-L., Zierden, D. F., Letson, D. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Assessing uncertainties in crop model simulations using daily bias-corrected Regional Circulation Model outputs Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
  Year 2007 Publication Climate Research Abbreviated Journal Clim. Res.  
  Volume 34 Issue Pages 211-222  
  Keywords crop yield forecasts; regional circulation models; crop models; bias correction; seasonal climate forecasts  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0936-577X ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 421  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Bastola, S.; Misra, V. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Seasonal hydrological and nutrient loading forecasts for watersheds over the Southeastern United States Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
  Year 2015 Publication Environmental Modelling & Software Abbreviated Journal Environmental Modelling & Software  
  Volume 73 Issue Pages 90-102  
  Keywords Rainfall-runoff model; Seasonal hydrologic forecasting; Southeastern United States; Water quality; Seasonal predictability  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1364-8152 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 95  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Bastola, S.; Misra, V.; Li, H. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Seasonal Hydrological Forecasts for Watersheds over the Southeastern United States for the Boreal Summer and Fall Seasons Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
  Year 2013 Publication Earth Interactions Abbreviated Journal Earth Interact.  
  Volume 17 Issue 25 Pages 1-22  
  Keywords Seasonal climate forecast; Ensemble streamflow prediction; Rainfall–runoff model  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1087-3562 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 207  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Brolley, J. M. url  openurl
  Title Experimental Forest Fire Threat Forecast Type $loc['typeManuscript']
  Year 2004 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords Forest Fire, El Nino, ENSO, Seasonal Forecast, KBDI, Keetch-Byram Drought Index, Bootstrapping  
  Abstract Climate shifts due to El Niño (warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and La Niña (cooler than normal) are well known and used to predict seasonal temperature and precipitation trends up to a year in advance. These climate shifts are particularly strong in the Southeastern United States. During the winter and spring months, El Niño brings plentiful rainfall and cooler temperatures to Florida. Recent los Niños occurred in 1997-1998, one of the strongest on record, with another mild El Niño in 2002-2003. Conversely, La Niña is associated with warm and dry winter and spring seasons in Florida. Temperature and precipitation affect wildfire activity; interannual drivers of climate, like ENSO, have an influence on wildfire activity. Studies have shown a strong connection between wildfires in Florida and La Niña, with the more than double the average number of acres burned (O'Brien et al 2002; Jones et al. 1999). While this relationship is important and lends a degree of predictability to the relative activity of future wildfire seasons, human activities such as effective suppression, prescribed burns, and ignition can play an equally important role in wildfire risks. This study forecasts wildfire potential rather than actual burn statistics to avoid complications due to human interactions. This wildfire threat potential is based upon the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). The KBDI is well suited as a seasonal forecast medium. It is based on daily temperature and rainfall measurements and responds to changing climate and weather conditions on time scales of days to months, and this index is high during dry warm weather patterns and low during wet cool patterns. The KBDI has been widely used in forestry in the Southeastern United States since its development in the 1970's, with foresters and firefighters have a good level of familiarity with the index and its applications. The KBDI is calculated daily and used as an index by wildfire managers. This study calculates wildfire potential using a statistical method known as bootstrapping. Many datasets contain approximately a half-century of data, and the limited dataset will introduce biases. Bootstrapping can remedy bias by simulating thousands of years of data, which retain the climatology for the past half-century. Bootstrapping preserves the mean but not the variance. By incorporating this method, this study will improve long-term forest fire risks that will become useful for those living or working near forests and assist in managing forests and wildfires. The Southeast Climate Consortium will also be issuing wildfire risk forecast for Florida and parts of Alabama and Georgia based on ENSO phase and the KBDI. Climate information and ENSO predictions are better served by incorporating them with known climate indices that are routinely used in the forestry sector. Wildfire managers and foresters operationally use the KBDI to monitor and predict wildfire activity (O'Brien et al. 2002). Meteorologists at the Florida Division of Forestry have demonstrated the validity of the KBDI as an indicator of potential wildfire activity in Florida (Long 2004). They showed that the value of the KBDI is not as important as the deviation from the monthly average. The wildfire risk forecast is based on the probabilities of KBDI anomalies and will present the probabilities associated with large deviations from the seasonal normal.  
  Address Department of Meteorology  
  Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']  
  Publisher Florida State University Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 622  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Conlon, K.C.; Kintziger, K.W.; Jagger, M.; Stefanova, L.; Uejio, C.K.; Konrad, C. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Working with Climate Projections to Estimate Disease Burden: Perspectives from Public Health Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
  Year 2016 Publication International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Abbreviated Journal Int J Environ Res Public Health  
  Volume 13 Issue 8 Pages  
  Keywords *Climate Change/statistics & numerical data; Florida; Forecasting; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Public Health/*trends; United States; adaptation; attributable fraction; climate modeling; project disease burden; public health  
  Abstract There is interest among agencies and public health practitioners in the United States (USA) to estimate the future burden of climate-related health outcomes. Calculating disease burden projections can be especially daunting, given the complexities of climate modeling and the multiple pathways by which climate influences public health. Interdisciplinary coordination between public health practitioners and climate scientists is necessary for scientifically derived estimates. We describe a unique partnership of state and regional climate scientists and public health practitioners assembled by the Florida Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) program. We provide a background on climate modeling and projections that has been developed specifically for public health practitioners, describe methodologies for combining climate and health data to project disease burden, and demonstrate three examples of this process used in Florida.  
  Address Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220, USA. konrad@unc.edu  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1660-4601 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding PMID:27517942; PMCID:PMC4997490 Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 73  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Dukhovskoy, D.S.; Myers, P.G.; Platov, G.; Timmermans, M.-L.; Curry, B.; Proshutinsky, A.; Bamber, J.L.; Chassignet, E.; Hu, X.; Lee, C.M.; Somavilla, R. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Greenland freshwater pathways in the sub-Arctic Seas from model experiments with passive tracers Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
  Year 2016 Publication Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Abbreviated Journal J. Geophys. Res. Oceans  
  Volume 121 Issue 1 Pages 877-907  
  Keywords Greenland Ice Sheet melting; Greenland freshwater; thermohaline circulation; Nordic Seas; sub-Arctic seas; Baffin Bay; Labrador Sea  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2169-9275 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 35  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Engelman, M. B. url  openurl
  Title A Validation of the FSU/COAPS Climate Model Type $loc['typeManuscript']
  Year 2008 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords Crop Models, Skill Scores, Seasonal Prediction, Extreme Events  
  Abstract This study examines the predictability of the Florida State University/Center for Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU/COAPS) climate model, and is motivated by the model's potential use in crop modeling. The study also compares real-time ensemble runs (created using persisted SST anomalies) to hindcast ensemble runs (created using weekly updated SST) to asses the effect of SST anomalies on forecast error. Wintertime (DJF, 2 month lead time) surface temperature and precipitation forecasts over the southeastern United States (Georgia, Alabama, and Florida) are evaluated because of the documented links between tropical Pacific SST anomalies and climate in the southeastern United States during the winter season. The global spectral model (GSM) runs at a T63 resolution and then is dynamically downscaled to a 20 x 20 km grid over the southeastern United States using the FSU regional spectral model (RSM). Seasonal, monthly, and daily events from the October 2004 and 2005 model runs are assessed. Seasonal (DJF) plots of real-time forecasts indicate the model is capable of predicting wintertime maximum and minimum temperatures over the southeastern United States. The October 2004 and 2005 real-time model runs both produce temperature forecasts with anomaly errors below 3°C, correlations close to one, and standard deviations similar to observations. Real-time precipitation forecasts are inconsistent. Error in the percent of normal precipitation vary from greater than 100% in the 2004/2005 forecasts to less than 35% error in the 2005/2006 forecasts. Comparing hindcast runs to real-time runs reveals some skill is lost in precipitation forecasts when using a method of SST anomaly persistence if the SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific change early in the forecast period, as they did for the October 2004 model runs. Further analysis involving monthly and daily model data as well as Brier scores (BS), relative operating characteristics (ROC), and equitable threat scores (ETS), are also examined to confirm these results.  
  Address Department of Meteorology  
  Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']  
  Publisher Florida State University Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 607  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Groenen, D. url  openurl
  Title The Effects of Climate Change on the Pests and Diseases of Coffee Crops in Mesoamerica Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
  Year 2018 Publication Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume 6 Issue 3 Pages  
  Keywords Coffee; Pests and diseases; Mesoamerica; Climate  
  Abstract Coffee is an in-demand commodity that is being threatened by climate change. Increasing temperatures and rainfall variability are predicted in the region of Mexico and Central America (Mesoamerica). This region is plagued with pests and diseases that have already caused millions of dollars in damages and losses to the coffee industry.This paper examines three pests that negatively affect coffee plants: the coffee borer beetle, the black twig borer,and nematodes. In addition, this paper examines three diseases that can destroy coffee crops: bacterial blight,coffee berry disease, and coffee leaf rust. This paper will review the literature on how these pests and diseases are predicted to affect coffee crops under climate change models. In general, increased temperatures will increase the spread of pest and disease in coffee crops. Projected decreased rainfall in Honduras and Nicaragua may decrease the spread of pest and disease. However, these are complex issues which still require further study.  
  Address Climatol Weather Forecasting  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2332-2594 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ user @ Serial 964  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Hong, S.-Y.; Park, H.; Cheong, H.-B.; Kim, J.-E.E.; Koo, M.-S.; Jang, J.; Ham, S.; Hwang, S.-O.; Park, B.-K.; Chang, E.-C.; Li, H. url  doi
openurl 
  Title The Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
  Year 2013 Publication Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Abbreviated Journal Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci  
  Volume 49 Issue 2 Pages 219-243  
  Keywords Numerical weather prediction; seasonal prediction; general circulation model; regional climate modeling; physics; parameterization; climate modeling; GRIMs; WRF  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1976-7633 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 215  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Jia, Y.; Chassignet, E.P. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Seasonal variation of eddy shedding from the Kuroshio intrusion in the Luzon Strait Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
  Year 2011 Publication Journal of Oceanography Abbreviated Journal J Oceanogr  
  Volume 67 Issue 5 Pages 601-611  
  Keywords Eddy shedding; Kuroshio intrusion; Luzon Strait; Seasonal variation  
  Abstract  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0916-8370 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 289  
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