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Author
Brolley, J. M.
Title
Effects of ENSO, NAO (PVO), and PDO on Monthly Extreme Temperatures and Precipitation
Type
$loc['typeManuscript']
Year
2007
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
NAO, PDO, ENSO, Climate Variability, Extremes, Stochastic
Abstract
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Polar Vortex Oscillation (PVO) produce conditions favorable for monthly extreme temperatures and precipitation. These climate modes produce upper-level teleconnection patterns that favor regional droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold spells, and these extremes impact agriculture, energy, forestry, and transportation. The above sectors prefer the knowledge of the worst (and sometimes the best) case scenarios. This study examines the extreme scenarios for each phase and the combination of phases that produce the greatest monthly extremes. Data from Canada, Mexico, and the United States are gathered from the Historical Climatology Network (HCN). Monthly data are simulated by the utilization of a Monte Carlo model. This Monte Carlo method simulates monthly data by the stochastic selection of daily data with identical ENSO, PDO, and PVO (NAO) characteristics. In order to test the quality of the Monte Carlo simulation, the simulations are compared with the observations using only PDO and PVO. It has been found that temperatures and precipitation in the simulation are similar to the model. Statistics tests have favored similarities between simulations and observations in most cases. Daily data are selected in blocks of four to eight days in order to conserve temporal correlation. Because the polar vortex occurs only during the cold season, the PVO is used during January, and the NAO is used during other months. The simulated data are arranged, and the tenth and ninetieth percentiles are analyzed. The magnitudes of temperature and precipitation anomalies are the greatest in the western Canada and the southeastern United States during winter, and these anomalies are located near the Pacific North American (PNA) extrema. Western Canada has its coldest (warmest) Januaries when the PDO and PVO are low (high). The southeastern United States has its coldest Januaries with high PDO and low PVO and warmest Januaries with low PDO and high PVO. Although extremes occur during El Nino or La Nina, many stations have the highest or lowest temperatures during neutral ENSO. In California and the Gulf Coast, the driest (wettest) Januaries tend to occur during low (high) PDO, and the reverse occurs in Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, and Indiana. Summertime anomalies, on the other hand, are weak because temperature variance is low. Phase combinations that form the wettest (driest) Julies form spatially incoherent patterns. The magnitudes of the temperature and precipitation anomalies and the corresponding phase combinations vary regionally and seasonally. Composite maps of geopotential heights across North America are plot for low, median, and high temperatures at six selected sites and for low, median, and high precipitation at the same sites. The greatest fluctuations occur near the six sites and over some of the loci of the PNA pattern. Geopotential heights tend to decrease (increase) over the target stations during the cold (warm) cases, and the results for precipitation are variable.
Address
Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author
Thesis
$loc['Ph.D. thesis']
Publisher
Florida State University
Place of Publication
Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
587
Permanent link to this record
Author
Goto, Y.
Title
Improved Vegetation Characterization and Freeze Statistics in a Regional Spectral Model for the Florida Citrus Farming Region
Type
$loc['typeManuscript']
Year
2008
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Ensemble Forecast, Climate Model
Abstract
This study focused on the effective use of a numerical climate model for agriculture in Florida, especially in the citrus farming region of the Florida peninsula, because of the impact of agriculture to Florida's economy. For the analyses of the ensemble, the climate models used in this study were the FSU/COAPS Global Spectral Model and FSU/COAPS Regional Spectral Model (FSU/COAPS RSM) coupled with a land-surface model. The multi-convective scheme method and variable initial conditions were used for the ensembles. Severe freezes impacting agriculture in Florida were associated with some major climate patterns, such as El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In the first part of this study, seasonal ensemble integrations of the regional model were examined for the tendencies of freezes in the Florida peninsula during each ENSO or NAO phase is examined. Mean excess values of minimum temperatures from thresholds on the basis of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), which represents the extreme data in a dataset, were used to analyze the freezes in the regional model. According to some previous studies, El Niño winters obtain fewer freezes than the other ENSO phases. Although the ensemble comprised only 19 winters, the ensemble found variability patterns in minimum temperatures in each climate phase similar to the findings in the previous studies which were based on the observed data. The FSU/COAPS RSM was coupled with Community Land Model 2.0 (CLM2), to represent the land-surface conditions. Although the coupling improved the temperature forecast of the RSM, it still has a cold bias and simulates smaller diurnal temperature changes than actually occur in southern Florida. Among the prescribed surface data, Leaf Area Index (LAI) for southern Florida in the CLM2 is lower than those observed by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). In the first experiment of this part, the sensitivity of the temperature forecast to the LAI in the climate models was investigated, by modifying the LAI data in the CLM2 based on the monthly MODIS observations. In the second experiment, newly created prescribed datasets of LAI and plant functional types for the CLM2 based on the MODIS observations were applied to the RSM. The substitution increased the diurnal temperature change in southern Florida slightly but almost consistently.
Address
Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author
Thesis
$loc['Ph.D. thesis']
Publisher
Florida State University
Place of Publication
Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
586
Permanent link to this record
Author
Frumkin, A
Title
Predictability of Dry Season Reforecasts over the Tropical South American Region
Type
$loc['typeManuscript']
Year
2011
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
RSM ; CFS ; Anomaly Nesting ; Climate Model
Abstract
Address
Department of Earth Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences
Corporate Author
Thesis
$loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher
Florida State University
Place of Publication
Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
333
Permanent link to this record
Author
Seitz, C.
Title
Estimating the Effects of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Activity
Type
$loc['typeManuscript']
Year
2014
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Climate Change, Tropical Cyclone
Abstract
Address
Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Scienc
Corporate Author
Thesis
$loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher
Florida State University
Place of Publication
Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
168
Permanent link to this record
Author
Selman, C. M.
Title
Simulating the Impacts and Sensitivity of the Southeastern United States Climatology to Irrigation
Type
$loc['typeManuscript']
Year
2015
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
climate ; irrigation ; precipitation ; regional model ; temperature
Abstract
Address
Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science
Corporate Author
Thesis
$loc['Ph.D. thesis']
Publisher
Florida State University
Place of Publication
Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
111
Permanent link to this record
Author
McNaught, C.
Title
The Increasing Intensity and Frequency of ENSO and its Impacts to the Southeast U.S.
Type
$loc['typeManuscript']
Year
2014
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
ENSO ; El-Nino ; climate ; meteorology ; southeast climate ; weather ; time series ; sea-surface temperatures ; La-Nina
Abstract
Address
Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science
Corporate Author
Thesis
$loc['Bachelor's thesis']
Publisher
Florida State University
Place of Publication
Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
165
Permanent link to this record
Author
Baigorria, G. ; Jones, J. ; Shin, D. ; Mishra, A. ; Ingram, K. T., Jones, J. W., O'Brien, J. J., Roncoli, M. C., Fraisse, C., Breuer, N. E., Bartels, W.-L., Zierden, D. F., Letson, D.
Title
Assessing uncertainties in crop model simulations using daily bias-corrected Regional Circulation Model outputs
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2007
Publication
Climate Research
Abbreviated Journal
Clim. Res.
Volume
34
Issue
Pages
211-222
Keywords
crop yield forecasts ; regional circulation models ; crop models ; bias correction ; seasonal climate forecasts
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0936-577X
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
421
Permanent link to this record
Author
Proshutinsky, A. ; Dukhovskoy, D. ; Timmermans, M.-L. ; Krishfield, R. ; Bamber, J.L.
Title
Arctic circulation regimes
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2015
Publication
Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
Abbreviated Journal
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci
Volume
373
Issue
2052
Pages
Keywords
arctic climate variability ; circulation regimes ; freshwater and heat content
Abstract
Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability.
Address
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
English
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
1364-503X
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
PMID:26347536; PMCID:PMC4607701
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
109
Permanent link to this record
Author
Conlon, K.C. ; Kintziger, K.W. ; Jagger, M. ; Stefanova, L. ; Uejio, C.K. ; Konrad, C.
Title
Working with Climate Projections to Estimate Disease Burden: Perspectives from Public Health
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2016
Publication
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Abbreviated Journal
Int J Environ Res Public Health
Volume
13
Issue
8
Pages
Keywords
*Climate Change/statistics & numerical data ; Florida ; Forecasting ; Humans ; Models, Theoretical ; Public Health/*trends ; United States ; adaptation ; attributable fraction ; climate modeling ; project disease burden ; public health
Abstract
There is interest among agencies and public health practitioners in the United States (USA) to estimate the future burden of climate-related health outcomes. Calculating disease burden projections can be especially daunting, given the complexities of climate modeling and the multiple pathways by which climate influences public health. Interdisciplinary coordination between public health practitioners and climate scientists is necessary for scientifically derived estimates. We describe a unique partnership of state and regional climate scientists and public health practitioners assembled by the Florida Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) program. We provide a background on climate modeling and projections that has been developed specifically for public health practitioners, describe methodologies for combining climate and health data to project disease burden, and demonstrate three examples of this process used in Florida.
Address
Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220, USA. konrad@unc.edu
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
English
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
1660-4601
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
PMID:27517942; PMCID:PMC4997490
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
73
Permanent link to this record
Author
Kirtman, B. P. ; Misra, V. ; Burgman, R. J. ; Infanti, J. ; Obeysekera, J.
Title
Florida Climate Variability and Prediction
Type
$loc['typeBook Chapter']
Year
2017
Publication
Florida's climate: Changes, variations, & impacts
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
511-532
Keywords
Multi-model ensembles ; Regional climate prediction ; Dynamical downscaling ; Statistical downscaling
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Florida Climate Institute
Place of Publication
Gainesville, FL
Editor
Chassignet, E. P.; Jones, J. W.; Misra, V.; Obeysekera, J.
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
850
Permanent link to this record