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Author Baigorria, G.; Jones, J.; Shin, D.; Mishra, A.; Ingram, K. T., Jones, J. W., O'Brien, J. J., Roncoli, M. C., Fraisse, C., Breuer, N. E., Bartels, W.-L., Zierden, D. F., Letson, D.
Title Assessing uncertainties in crop model simulations using daily bias-corrected Regional Circulation Model outputs Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2007 Publication Climate Research Abbreviated Journal Clim. Res.
Volume 34 Issue Pages 211-222
Keywords crop yield forecasts; regional circulation models; crop models; bias correction; seasonal climate forecasts
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0936-577X ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 421
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Author Baigorria, G.A.; Jones, J.W.; O'Brien, J.J.
Title Potential predictability of crop yield using an ensemble climate forecast by a regional circulation model Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2008 Publication Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Abbreviated Journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume 148 Issue 8-9 Pages 1353-1361
Keywords crop yield forecast; regional circulation models; crop models; bias-correction; principal components; statistical downscaling; CERES-Maize
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0168-1923 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 407
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Author Engelman, M. B.
Title A Validation of the FSU/COAPS Climate Model Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2008 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Crop Models, Skill Scores, Seasonal Prediction, Extreme Events
Abstract This study examines the predictability of the Florida State University/Center for Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU/COAPS) climate model, and is motivated by the model's potential use in crop modeling. The study also compares real-time ensemble runs (created using persisted SST anomalies) to hindcast ensemble runs (created using weekly updated SST) to asses the effect of SST anomalies on forecast error. Wintertime (DJF, 2 month lead time) surface temperature and precipitation forecasts over the southeastern United States (Georgia, Alabama, and Florida) are evaluated because of the documented links between tropical Pacific SST anomalies and climate in the southeastern United States during the winter season. The global spectral model (GSM) runs at a T63 resolution and then is dynamically downscaled to a 20 x 20 km grid over the southeastern United States using the FSU regional spectral model (RSM). Seasonal, monthly, and daily events from the October 2004 and 2005 model runs are assessed. Seasonal (DJF) plots of real-time forecasts indicate the model is capable of predicting wintertime maximum and minimum temperatures over the southeastern United States. The October 2004 and 2005 real-time model runs both produce temperature forecasts with anomaly errors below 3°C, correlations close to one, and standard deviations similar to observations. Real-time precipitation forecasts are inconsistent. Error in the percent of normal precipitation vary from greater than 100% in the 2004/2005 forecasts to less than 35% error in the 2005/2006 forecasts. Comparing hindcast runs to real-time runs reveals some skill is lost in precipitation forecasts when using a method of SST anomaly persistence if the SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific change early in the forecast period, as they did for the October 2004 model runs. Further analysis involving monthly and daily model data as well as Brier scores (BS), relative operating characteristics (ROC), and equitable threat scores (ETS), are also examined to confirm these results.
Address Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher Florida State University Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 607
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Author Fraisse, C.W.; Breuer, N.E.; Zierden, D.; Bellow, J.G.; Paz, J.; Cabrera, V.E.; Garcia y Garcia, A.; Ingram, K.T.; Hatch, U.; Hoogenboom, G.; Jones, J.W.; O'Brien, J.J.
Title AgClimate: A climate forecast information system for agricultural risk management in the southeastern USA Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2006 Publication Computers and Electronics in Agriculture Abbreviated Journal Computers and Electronics in Agriculture
Volume 53 Issue 1 Pages 13-27
Keywords crop models climate variability; decision making; ENSO; El Nino; extension
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0168-1699 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 434
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