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Author (up) Venugopal, T.; Ali, M.M.; Bourassa, M.A.; Zheng, Y.; Goni, G.J.; Foltz, G.R.; Rajeevan, M.
Title Statistical Evidence for the Role of Southwestern Indian Ocean Heat Content in the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2018 Publication SCIENTIFIC REPORTS Abbreviated Journal Sci Rep
Volume 8 Issue 1 Pages 12092
Keywords SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE; EL-NINO; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC; IMPACT; PREDICTION; ENSO; DIPOLE; REGION; SST
Abstract This study examines the benefit of using Ocean Mean Temperature (OMT) to aid in the prediction of the sign of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) anomalies. This is a statistical examination, rather than a process study. The thermal energy needed for maintaining and intensifying hurricanes and monsoons comes from the upper ocean, not just from the thin layer represented by sea surface temperature (SST) alone. Here, we show that the southwestern Indian OMT down to the depth of the 26 degrees C isotherm during January-March is a better qualitative predictor of the ISMR than SST. The success rate in predicting above- or below-average ISMR is 80% for OMT compared to 60% for SST. Other January-March mean climate indices (e.g., NINO3.4, Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index, El Nino Southern Oscillation Modoki Index) have less predictability (52%, 48%, and 56%, respectively) than OMT percentage deviation (PD) (80%). Thus, OMT PD in the southwestern Indian Ocean provides a better qualitative prediction of ISMR by the end of March and indicates whether the ISMR will be above or below the climatological mean value.
Address Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, New Delhi, India
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 2045-2322 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding strtoupper('3').strtolower('0108244'); strtoupper('P').strtolower('MC6092415') Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ user @ Serial 972
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