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| Author | Chassignet, E. P.; Marshall, D. P. | ||||
| Title | Gulf Stream Separation in Numerical Ocean Models | Type | $loc['typeBook Chapter'] | ||
| Year | 2008 | Publication | Ocean Modeling in an Eddying Regime | Abbreviated Journal | |
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| Publisher | American Geophysical Union | Place of Publication | Washington, DC | Editor | Hecht, M. W.; Hasumi, H. |
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| Funding | Approved | $loc['no'] | |||
| Call Number | COAPS @ mfield @ | Serial | 695 | ||
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| Author | Engelman, M. B. | ||||
| Title | A Validation of the FSU/COAPS Climate Model | Type | $loc['typeManuscript'] | ||
| Year | 2008 | Publication | Abbreviated Journal | ||
| Volume | Issue | Pages | |||
| Keywords | Crop Models, Skill Scores, Seasonal Prediction, Extreme Events | ||||
| Abstract | This study examines the predictability of the Florida State University/Center for Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU/COAPS) climate model, and is motivated by the model's potential use in crop modeling. The study also compares real-time ensemble runs (created using persisted SST anomalies) to hindcast ensemble runs (created using weekly updated SST) to asses the effect of SST anomalies on forecast error. Wintertime (DJF, 2 month lead time) surface temperature and precipitation forecasts over the southeastern United States (Georgia, Alabama, and Florida) are evaluated because of the documented links between tropical Pacific SST anomalies and climate in the southeastern United States during the winter season. The global spectral model (GSM) runs at a T63 resolution and then is dynamically downscaled to a 20 x 20 km grid over the southeastern United States using the FSU regional spectral model (RSM). Seasonal, monthly, and daily events from the October 2004 and 2005 model runs are assessed. Seasonal (DJF) plots of real-time forecasts indicate the model is capable of predicting wintertime maximum and minimum temperatures over the southeastern United States. The October 2004 and 2005 real-time model runs both produce temperature forecasts with anomaly errors below 3°C, correlations close to one, and standard deviations similar to observations. Real-time precipitation forecasts are inconsistent. Error in the percent of normal precipitation vary from greater than 100% in the 2004/2005 forecasts to less than 35% error in the 2005/2006 forecasts. Comparing hindcast runs to real-time runs reveals some skill is lost in precipitation forecasts when using a method of SST anomaly persistence if the SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific change early in the forecast period, as they did for the October 2004 model runs. Further analysis involving monthly and daily model data as well as Brier scores (BS), relative operating characteristics (ROC), and equitable threat scores (ETS), are also examined to confirm these results. | ||||
| Address | Department of Meteorology | ||||
| Corporate Author | Thesis | $loc['Master's thesis'] | |||
| Publisher | Florida State University | Place of Publication | Tallahassee, FL | Editor | |
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| Funding | Approved | $loc['no'] | |||
| Call Number | COAPS @ mfield @ | Serial | 607 | ||
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| Author | Ford, K. M. | ||||
| Title | Uncertainty in Scatterometer-Derived Vorticity | Type | $loc['typeManuscript'] | ||
| Year | 2008 | Publication | Abbreviated Journal | ||
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| Keywords | Vorticity, Scatterometer, Cyclone Genesis, Rrror Analysis, Tropical Storm | ||||
| Abstract | A more versatile and robust technique is developed for determining area averaged surface vorticity based on vector winds from the SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikSCAT satellite. This improved technique is discussed in detail and compared to two previous studies by Sharp et al. (2002) and Gierach et al. (2007) that focused on early development of tropical systems. The error characteristics of the technique are examined in detail. Specifically, three independent sources of error are explored: random observational error, truncation error and representation error. Observational errors are due to random errors in the wind observations, and determined as a worst-case estimate as a function of averaging spatial scale. The observational uncertainty in vorticity averaged for a roughly circular shape with a 100 km diameter, expressed as one standard deviation, is approximately 0.5 x 10 -5 s-1 for the methodology described herein. Truncation error is associated with the assumption of linear changes between wind vectors. For accurate results, it must be estimated on a case-by-case basis. An attempt is made to determine a lower bound of truncation errors through the use of composites of tropical disturbances. This lower bound is calculated as 10-7 s-1 for the composites, which is relatively small compared to the tropical disturbance detection threshold set at 5 x 10-5 s-1, used in an earlier study. However, in more realistic conditions, uncertainty related to truncation errors is much larger than observational uncertainty. The third type of error discussed is due to the size of the area being averaged. If the wind vectors associated with a vorticity maximum are inside the perimeter of this area (away from the edges), it will be missed. This type of error is analogous to over-smoothing. Tropical and sub-tropical low pressure systems from three months of QuikSCAT observations are used to examine this error. This error results in a bias of approximately 1.5 x 10-5 s-1 for area averaged vorticity calculated on a 100 km scale compared to vorticity calculated on a 25 km scale. The discussion of these errors will benefit future projects of this nature as well as future satellite missions. | ||||
| Address | Department of Meteorology | ||||
| Corporate Author | Thesis | $loc['Master's thesis'] | |||
| Publisher | Florida State University | Place of Publication | Tallahassee, FL | Editor | |
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| Funding | Approved | $loc['no'] | |||
| Call Number | COAPS @ mfield @ | Serial | 608 | ||
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| Author | Goto, Y. | ||||
| Title | Improved Vegetation Characterization and Freeze Statistics in a Regional Spectral Model for the Florida Citrus Farming Region | Type | $loc['typeManuscript'] | ||
| Year | 2008 | Publication | Abbreviated Journal | ||
| Volume | Issue | Pages | |||
| Keywords | Ensemble Forecast, Climate Model | ||||
| Abstract | This study focused on the effective use of a numerical climate model for agriculture in Florida, especially in the citrus farming region of the Florida peninsula, because of the impact of agriculture to Florida's economy. For the analyses of the ensemble, the climate models used in this study were the FSU/COAPS Global Spectral Model and FSU/COAPS Regional Spectral Model (FSU/COAPS RSM) coupled with a land-surface model. The multi-convective scheme method and variable initial conditions were used for the ensembles. Severe freezes impacting agriculture in Florida were associated with some major climate patterns, such as El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In the first part of this study, seasonal ensemble integrations of the regional model were examined for the tendencies of freezes in the Florida peninsula during each ENSO or NAO phase is examined. Mean excess values of minimum temperatures from thresholds on the basis of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD), which represents the extreme data in a dataset, were used to analyze the freezes in the regional model. According to some previous studies, El Niño winters obtain fewer freezes than the other ENSO phases. Although the ensemble comprised only 19 winters, the ensemble found variability patterns in minimum temperatures in each climate phase similar to the findings in the previous studies which were based on the observed data. The FSU/COAPS RSM was coupled with Community Land Model 2.0 (CLM2), to represent the land-surface conditions. Although the coupling improved the temperature forecast of the RSM, it still has a cold bias and simulates smaller diurnal temperature changes than actually occur in southern Florida. Among the prescribed surface data, Leaf Area Index (LAI) for southern Florida in the CLM2 is lower than those observed by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer). In the first experiment of this part, the sensitivity of the temperature forecast to the LAI in the climate models was investigated, by modifying the LAI data in the CLM2 based on the monthly MODIS observations. In the second experiment, newly created prescribed datasets of LAI and plant functional types for the CLM2 based on the MODIS observations were applied to the RSM. The substitution increased the diurnal temperature change in southern Florida slightly but almost consistently. | ||||
| Address | Department of Meteorology | ||||
| Corporate Author | Thesis | $loc['Ph.D. thesis'] | |||
| Publisher | Florida State University | Place of Publication | Tallahassee, FL | Editor | |
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| Call Number | COAPS @ mfield @ | Serial | 586 | ||
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| Author | Goto-Maeda, Y.; Shin, D.W.; O'Brien, J.J. | ||||
| Title | Freeze probability of Florida in a regional climate model and climate indices | Type | $loc['typeJournal Article'] | ||
| Year | 2008 | Publication | Geophysical Research Letters | Abbreviated Journal | Geophys. Res. Lett. |
| Volume | 35 | Issue | 11 | Pages | |
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| ISSN | 0094-8276 | ISBN | Medium | ||
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| Call Number | COAPS @ mfield @ | Serial | 411 | ||
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| Author | Gouillon, F. | ||||
| Title | Internal wave generation over a ridge using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) | Type | $loc['typeConference Article'] | ||
| Year | 2008 | Publication | AGU, Orlando, FL | Abbreviated Journal | |
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| Call Number | COAPS @ mfield @ | Serial | 689 | ||
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| Author | Griffin, M. | ||||
| Title | Extreme temperatures (2007-2008) | Type | $loc['typeNewspaper Article'] | ||
| Year | 2008 | Publication | Red-Cross/Florida Emergency Management Hazardous Weather Awareness Week Brochure | Abbreviated Journal | |
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| Call Number | COAPS @ mfield @ | Serial | 688 | ||
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| Author | Hurlburt, H. E.; Chassignet, E. P.; Cummings, J. A.; Kara, A. B.; Metzger, E. J.; Shriver, J. F.; Smedstad, O. M.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Barron, C. N. | ||||
| Title | Eddy-Resolving Global Ocean Prediction | Type | $loc['typeBook Chapter'] | ||
| Year | 2008 | Publication | Ocean Modeling in an Eddying Regime | Abbreviated Journal | |
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| Publisher | Ocean Modeling in an Eddying Regime | Place of Publication | Washington, DC | Editor | Hecht, M. W.; Hasumi, H. |
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| Call Number | COAPS @ mfield @ | Serial | 694 | ||
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| Author | Kalnay, E.; Cai, M.; Nunez, M.; Lim, Y.-K. | ||||
| Title | Impacts of urbanization and land surface changes on climate trends | Type | $loc['typeMagazine Article'] | ||
| Year | 2008 | Publication | Urban Climate News | Abbreviated Journal | |
| Volume | 27 | Issue | Pages | 5-9 | |
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| Call Number | COAPS @ mfield @ | Serial | 685 | ||
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| Author | Kara, A.B.; Metzger, E.J.; Hurlburt, H.E.; Wallcraft, A.J.; Chassignet, E.P. | ||||
| Title | Multistatistics metric evaluation of ocean general circulation model sea surface temperature: Application to 0.08° Pacific Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model simulations | Type | $loc['typeJournal Article'] | ||
| Year | 2008 | Publication | Journal of Geophysical Research | Abbreviated Journal | J. Geophys. Res. |
| Volume | 113 | Issue | C12 | Pages | |
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| ISSN | 0148-0227 | ISBN | Medium | ||
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| Call Number | COAPS @ mfield @ | Serial | 403 | ||
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Building A, Suite 292
Tallahassee, FL 32306-2741
Phone: (850) 644-4581
Fax: (850) 644-4841
contact@coaps.fsu.edu
