Ali, M. M., Nagamani, P. V., Sharma, N., Venu Gopal, R. T., Rajeevan, M., Goni, G. J., et al. (2015). Relationship between ocean mean temperatures and Indian summer monsoon rainfall.
Atmos. Sci. Lett., 16(3), 408–413.
Domingues, R., Kuwano-Yoshida, A., Chardon-Maldonado, P., Todd, R. E., Halliwell, G., Kim, H. - S., et al. (2019). Ocean Observations in Support of Studies and Forecasts of Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones.
Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 446.
Abstract: Over the past decade, measurements from the climate-oriented ocean observing system have been key to advancing the understanding of extreme weather events that originate and intensify over the ocean, such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical bomb cyclones (ECs). In order to foster further advancements to predict and better understand these extreme weather events, a need for a dedicated observing system component specifically to support studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs has been identified, but such a system has not yet been implemented. New technologies, pilot networks, targeted deployments of instruments, and state-of-the art coupled numerical models have enabled advances in research and forecast capabilities and illustrate a potential framework for future development. Here, applications and key results made possible by the different ocean observing efforts in support of studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs, as well as recent advances in observing technologies and strategies are reviewed. Then a vision and specific recommendations for the next decade are discussed.
Goni, G., DeMaria, M., Knaff, J., Sampson, C., Ginis, I., Bringas, F., et al. (2009). Applications of Satellite-Derived Ocean Measurements to Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting.
Oceanog., 22(3), 190–197.
Lee, C. M., Starkweather, S., Eicken, H., Timmermans, M. - L., Wilkinson, J., Sandven, S., et al. (2019). A Framework for the Development, Design and Implementation of a Sustained Arctic Ocean Observing System.
Front. Mar. Sci., 6.
Nagamani, P. V., Ali, M. M., Goni, G. J., Udaya Bhaskar, T. V. S., McCreary, J. P., Weller, R. A., et al. (2016). Heat content of the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool is increasing.
Atmos. Sci. Lett., 17(1), 39–42.
Venugopal, T., Ali, M. M., Bourassa, M. A., Zheng, Y., Goni, G. J., Foltz, G. R., et al. (2018). Statistical Evidence for the Role of Southwestern Indian Ocean Heat Content in the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall.
Sci Rep, 8(1), 12092.
Abstract: This study examines the benefit of using Ocean Mean Temperature (OMT) to aid in the prediction of the sign of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) anomalies. This is a statistical examination, rather than a process study. The thermal energy needed for maintaining and intensifying hurricanes and monsoons comes from the upper ocean, not just from the thin layer represented by sea surface temperature (SST) alone. Here, we show that the southwestern Indian OMT down to the depth of the 26 degrees C isotherm during January-March is a better qualitative predictor of the ISMR than SST. The success rate in predicting above- or below-average ISMR is 80% for OMT compared to 60% for SST. Other January-March mean climate indices (e.g., NINO3.4, Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index, El Nino Southern Oscillation Modoki Index) have less predictability (52%, 48%, and 56%, respectively) than OMT percentage deviation (PD) (80%). Thus, OMT PD in the southwestern Indian Ocean provides a better qualitative prediction of ISMR by the end of March and indicates whether the ISMR will be above or below the climatological mean value.