Kumar, V., Jana, S., Bhardwaj, A., Deepa, R., Sahu, S. K., Pradhan, P. K., et al. (2018). Greenhouse Gas Emission, Rainfall and Crop Production Over North-Western India.
TOECOLJ, 11(1), 47–61.
This study is based on datasets acquired from multi sources e.g. rain-gauges, satellite, reanalysis and coupled model for the region of Northwestern India. The influence of rainfall on crop production is obvious and direct. With the climate change and global warming, greenhouse gases are also showing an adverse impact on crop production. Greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2, NO2 and CH4) have shown an increasing trend over Northwestern Indian region. In recent years, rainfall has also shown an increasing trend over Northwestern India, while the production of rice and maize are reducing over the region. From eight selected sites, over Northwestern India, where rice and maize productions have reduced by 40%, with an increase in CO2, NO2 and CH4 gas emission by 5% from 1998 to 2011.
The correlation from one year to another between rainfall, gas emission and crop production was not very robust throughout the study period, but seemed to be stronger for some years than others.
Such trends and crop yield are attributed to rainfall, greenhouse gas emissions and to the climate variability.
LaCasce, J. H., Escartin, J., Chassignet, E. P., & Xu, X. (2018). Jet instability over smooth, corrugated and realistic bathymetry.
J. Phys. Oceanogr., .
Abstract: The stability of a horizontally- and vertically-sheared surface jet is examined, with a focus on the vertical structure of the resultant eddies. Over a flat bottom, the instability is mixed baroclinic/barotropic, producing strong eddies at depth which are characteristically shifted downstream relative to the surface eddies. Baroclinic instability is suppressed over a large slope for retrograde jets (with a flow anti-parallel to topographic wave propagation), and to a lesser extent for prograde jets (with flow parallel to topographic wave propagation), as seen previously. In such cases, barotropic (lateral) instability dominates if the jet is sufficiently narrow. This yields surface eddies whose size is independent of the slope but proportional to the jet width. Deep eddies still form, forced by interfacial motion associated with the surface eddies, but they are weaker than under baroclinic instability and are vertically aligned with the surface eddies. A sinusoidal ridge acts similarly, suppressing baroclinic instability and favoring lateral instability in the upper layer.
A ridge with a 1 km wavelength and an amplitude of roughly 10 m is sufficient to suppress baroclinic instability. Surveys of bottom roughness from bathymetry acquired with shipboard multibeam echosounding reveal that such heights are common, beneath the Kuroshio, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and, to a lesser extent, the Gulf Stream. Consistent with this, vorticity and velocity cross sections from a 1/50° HYCOM simulation suggest that Gulf Stream eddies are vertically aligned, as in the linear stability calculations with strong topography. Thus lateral instability may be more common than previously thought, due to topography hindering vertical energy transfer.
Maloney, E. D., Gettelman, A., Ming, Y., Neelin, J. D., Barrie, D., Mariotti, A., et al. (2019). Process-Oriented Evaluation of Climate and Weather Forecasting Models.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., .
Abstract: Outcomes of NOAA MAPP Model Diagnostics Task Force activities to promote process-oriented diagnosis of models to accelerate development are described. Realistic climate and weather prediction models are necessary to produce confidence in projections of future climate over many decades and predictions for days to seasons. These models must be physically justified and validated for multiple weather and climate processes. A key opportunity to accelerate model improvement is greater incorporation of process-oriented diagnostics (PODs) into standard packages that can be applied during the model development process, allowing the application of diagnostics to be repeatable across multiple model versions and used as a benchmark for model improvement. A POD characterizes a specific physical process or emergent behavior that is related to the ability to simulate an observed phenomenon. This paper describes the outcomes of activities by the Model Diagnostics Task Force (MDTF) under the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program to promote development of PODs and their application to climate and weather prediction models. MDTF and modeling center perspectives on the need for expanded process-oriented diagnosis of models are presented. Multiple PODs developed by the MDTF are summarized, and an open-source software framework developed by the MDTF to aid application of PODs to centers’ model development is presented in the context of other relevant community activities. The paper closes by discussing paths forward for the MDTF effort and for community process-oriented diagnosis.
Misra, V., & Bhardwaj, A. (2019). Defining the Northeast Monsoon of India.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 147(3), 791–807.
Abstract: This study introduces an objective definition for onset and demise of the Northeast Indian Monsoon (NEM). The definition is based on the land surface temperature analysis over the Indian subcontinent. It is diagnosed from the inflection points in the daily anomaly cumulative curve of the area-averaged surface temperature over the provinces of Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, and Tamil Nadu located in the southeastern part of India. Per this definition, the climatological onset and demise dates of the NEM season are 6 November and 13 March, respectively. The composite evolution of the seasonal cycle of 850hPa winds, surface wind stress, surface ocean currents, and upper ocean heat content suggest a seasonal shift around the time of the diagnosed onset and demise dates of the NEM season. The interannual variations indicate onset date variations have a larger impact than demise date variations on the seasonal length, seasonal anomalies of rainfall, and surface temperature of the NEM. Furthermore, it is shown that warm El Niño�Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes are associated with excess seasonal rainfall, warm seasonal land surface temperature anomalies, and reduced lengths of the NEM season. Likewise, cold ENSO episodes are likely to be related to seasonal deficit rainfall anomalies, cold land surface temperature anomalies, and increased lengths of the NEM season.
Misra, V., Mishra, A., & Bhardwaj, A. (2019). A coupled ocean-atmosphere downscaled climate projection for the peninsular Florida region.
Journal of Marine Systems, 194, 25–40.
Abstract: A downscaled projection over the Peninsular Florida (PF) region is conducted with a Regional Climate Model (RCM) at 10 km grid spacing that incorporates interactive coupling between the atmosphere and ocean components of the climate system. This is first such application of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model for climate projection over the PF region. The RCM is shown to display reasonable fidelity in simulating the mean current climate and exhibits higher variability both in the ocean and in the atmosphere than the large-scale global model (Community Climate System Model version 4 [CCSM4]), which is used to drive the RCM. There are several features of the regional climate that RCM displays as an improvement over CCSM4: upper ocean thermal stratification, surface eddy kinetic energy of the ocean, volume flux through the Yucatan Channel, and terrestrial rainfall over PF. The projected mean hydroclimatic change over the period 2041�2060 relative to 1986�2005 over PF shows significant difference between RCM and CCSM4, with the RCM becoming significantly drier and CCSM4 moderately wetter. Furthermore, over the ocean surface, especially over the West Florida Shelf (WFS), RCM displays a wetter and a warmer surface climate compared to the CCSM4 simulation.
Our analysis of the model output indicates that improved resolution of ocean bathymetry in the RCM plays a significant role in the response of the projected changes in surface heat flux, clouds, upper ocean circulations and upper ocean stratification, which manifests with some of the largest differences from the CCSM4 projections, especially over the shallower parts of the ocean around PF. This contrast is most apparent between WFS and PF in the RCM simulation, which suggests that a future warm climate would likely produce more rain over WFS at the expense of corresponding reduction over PF, contrary to the absence of any such gradient in the CCSM4 simulation. Furthermore, in the RCM simulation, the warming of the sub-surface ocean in the future climate is owed to the combined influence of excess atmospheric heat flux directed towards the ocean from the atmosphere and the advective heat flux convergence with the relative slowing of the Loop Current in the future climate. The study demonstrates that such RCMs with coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions are necessary to downscale the global climate models to project the surface hydro-climate over regions like PF that have mesoscale features in the ocean, which can influence the terrestrial climate.
Morey, S. L., Wienders, N., Dukhovskoy, D. S., & Bourassa, M. A. (2018). Impact of Stokes Drift on Measurements of Surface Currents from Drifters and HF Radar. In
American Geophysical Union (Vol. Fall Meeting).
Abstract: Concurrent measurements by surface drifters of different configurations and HF radar reveal substantial differences in estimates of the near-surface seawater velocity. On average, speeds of small ultra-thin (5 cm) drifters are significantly greater than co-located drifters with a traditional shallow drogue design, while velocity measurements from the drogued drifters closely match HF radar velocity estimates. Analysis of directional wave spectra measurements from a nearby buoy reveals that Stokes drift accounts for much of the difference between the velocity measurements from the drogued drifters and the ultra-thin drifters, except during times of wave breaking. Under wave breaking conditions, the difference between the ultra-thin drifter velocity and the drogued drifter velocity is much less than the computed Stokes drift. The results suggest that surface currents measured by more common approaches or simulated in models may underrepresent the velocity at the very surface of the ocean that is important for determining momentum and enthalpy fluxes between the ocean and atmosphere and for estimating transport of material at the ocean surface. However, simply adding an estimate of Stokes drift may also not be an appropriate method for estimating the true surface velocity from models or measurements from drogued drifters or HF radar under all sea conditions.
Morrison, T., Dukhovskoy, D. S., McClean, J., Gille, S. T., & Chassignet, E. (2018). Causes of the anomalous heat flux onto the Greenland continental shelf. In
American Geophysical Union (Vol. Fall Meeting).
Abstract: On the continental shelf around Greenland, warm-salty Atlantic water at depth fills the deep narrow fjords where Greenland's tidewater glaciers terminate. Changes in the quantity or properties of this water mass starting in the mid 1990s is thought to be largely responsible for increased ocean-driven melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Using high-resolution (nominal 0.1-degree) ocean circulation models we cannot accurately resolve small-scale processes on the shelf or within fjords. However, we can assess changes in the flux of heat via Atlantic water onto the continental shelf. To understand the causes of the anomalous heat that has reached the shelf we examine heat content of subtropical gyre water and shifts in the North Atlantic and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations.
We compare changes in heat transport in two eddy permitting simulations: a global 0.1 degree (5-7km around Greenland) resolution coupled hindcast (1970-2009) simulation of the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and a regional 0.08 degree (3-5km around Greenland) resolution coupled HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) hindcast (1993-2016) simulation. Both models are coupled to the Los Alamos National Laboratory Community Ice CodE version 4 and forced by atmospheric reanalysis fluxes. In both models we look for processes that could explain the increase in heat; processes that are present in both are likely to be robust causes of warming.
Morrow, R. M., Ohman, M. D., Goericke, R., Kelly, T. B., Stephens, B. M., & Stukel, M. R. (2018). CCE V: Primary production, mesozooplankton grazing, and the biological pump in the California Current Ecosystem: Variability and response to El Niño.
Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, 140, 52–62.
Abstract: Predicting marine carbon sequestration in a changing climate requires mechanistic understanding of the processes controlling sinking particle flux under different climatic conditions. The recent occurrence of a warm anomaly (2014-2015) followed by an El Nino (2015-2016) in the southern sector of the California Current System presented an opportunity to analyze changes in the biological carbon pump in response to altered climate forcing. We compare primary production, mesozooplankton grazing, and carbon export from the euphotic zone during quasi-Lagrangian experiments conducted in contrasting conditions: two cruises during warm years – one during the warm anomaly in 2014 and one toward the end of El Nino 2016 – and three cruises during El Ninoneutral years. Results showed no substantial differences in the relationships between vertical carbon export and its presumed drivers (primary production, mesozooplankton grazing) between warm and neutral years. Mesozooplankton fecal pellet enumeration and phaeopigment measurements both showed that fecal pellets were the dominant contributor to export in productive upwelling regions. In more oligotrophic regions, fluxes were dominated by amorphous marine snow with negligible pigment content. We found no evidence for a significant shift in the relationship between mesozooplankton grazing rate and chlorophyll concentration. However, massspecific grazing rates were lower at low-to-moderate chlorophyll concentrations during warm years relative to neutral years. We also detected a significant difference in the relationship between phytoplankton primary production and photosynthetically active radiation between years: at similar irradiance and nutrient concentrations, productivity decreased during the warm events. Whether these changes resulted from species composition changes remains to be determined. Overall, our results suggest that the processes driving export remain similar during different climate conditions, but that species compositional changes or other structural changes require further attention.
O'hara, S. H., Arko, R. A., Clark, D., Chandler, C. L., Elya, J. L., Ferrini, V. L., et al. (2018). Rolling Deck to Repository (R2R) Program Data Services for the Oceanographic Research Community.
American Geophysical Union, .
Abstract: Research vessels supported by NSF are critical platforms contributing to academic oceanographic research in the US. The “underway” data sets obtained from the continuously operating geophysical, water column, and meteorological sensors aboard these vessels provide characterization of basic environmental conditions for the oceans and are of high scientific value for building global syntheses, climatologies, and historical time series of ocean properties (e.g the World Ocean Atlas, the GMRT bathymetric synthesis, ICOADS). The Rolling deck to Repository program (www.rvdata.us) provides a central shore-side data gateway that ensures the basic documentation, assessment and submission of all environmental data from ship operators to the NOAA long-term archives for these data.
R2R provides a set of data services for the oceanographic research community, including: publishing an online, searchable and browsable master cruise catalog, supported by cruise and data set DOIs; organizing, archiving, and disseminating original underway data and documents; assessing data quality on select data types; creating select post-field data products; and supporting at-sea event logging.
In this presentation we will discuss new developments in R2R data services and challenges associated with ship-based data management. A significant challenge is the dramatic increase in data volumes associated with new sensors (e.g. the EK80 Sonar systems) whereby individual cruise distributions can be several terabytes. Ship operators, R2R and NCEI must design a way to move and store these growing volumes. R2R is also working to make information more accessible and complete. A new website has been launched along with API web services that allow users to find and use data more easily. R2R is working to improve device metadata, including working to identify the time sources for all environmental sensors to support accurate comparison and merging of data sets.
O'hara, S. H., Arko, R. A., Clark, D., Chandler, C. L., Elya, J. L., Ferrini, V. L., et al. (2018). Rolling Deck to Repository (R2R) Program Data Services for the Oceanographic Research Community. In
American Geophysical Union (Vol. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2018).
Abstract: Research vessels supported by NSF are critical platforms contributing to academic oceanographic research in the US. The “underway” data sets obtained from the continuously operating geophysical, water column, and meteorological sensors aboard these vessels provide characterization of basic environmental conditions for the oceans and are of high scientific value for building global syntheses, climatologies, and historical time series of ocean properties (e.g the World Ocean Atlas, the GMRT bathymetric synthesis, ICOADS). The Rolling deck to Repository program (www.rvdata.us) provides a central shore-side data gateway that ensures the basic documentation, assessment and submission of all environmental data from ship operators to the NOAA long-term archives for these data. R2R provides a set of data services for the oceanographic research community, including: publishing an online, searchable and browsable master cruise catalog, supported by cruise and data set DOIs; organizing, archiving, and disseminating original underway data and documents; assessing data quality on select data types; creating select post-field data products; and supporting at-sea event logging. In this presentation we will discuss new developments in R2R data services and challenges associated with ship-based data management. A significant challenge is the dramatic increase in data volumes associated with new sensors (e.g. the EK80 Sonar systems) whereby individual cruise distributions can be several terabytes. Ship operators, R2R and NCEI must design a way to move and store these growing volumes. R2R is also working to make information more accessible and complete. A new website has been launched along with API web services that allow users to find and use data more easily. R2R is working to improve device metadata, including working to identify the time sources for all environmental sensors to support accurate comparison and merging of data sets.