Nelson, A. D., Arbic, B. K., Zaron, E. D., Savage, A. C., Richman, J. G., Buijsman, M. C., et al. (2019). Toward Realistic Nonstationarity of Semidiurnal Baroclinic Tides in a Hydrodynamic Model.
J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 124(9), 6632–6641.
Abstract: Semidiurnal baroclinic tide sea surface height (SSH) variance and semidiurnal nonstationary variance fraction (SNVF) are compared between a hydrodynamic model and altimetry for the low- to middle-latitude global ocean. Tidal frequencies are aliased by similar to 10-day altimeter sampling, which makes it impossible to unambiguously identify nonstationary tidal signals from the observations. In order to better understand altimeter sampling artifacts, the model was analyzed using its native hourly outputs and by subsampling it in the same manner as altimeters. Different estimates of the semidiurnal nonstationary and total SSH variance are obtained with the model depending on whether they are identified in the frequency domain or wave number domain and depending on the temporal sampling of the model output. Five sources of ambiguity in the interpretation of the altimetry are identified and briefly discussed. When the model and altimetry are analyzed in the same manner, they display qualitatively similar spatial patterns of semidiurnal baroclinic tides. The SNVF typically correlates above 80% at all latitudes between the different analysis methods and above 60% between the model and altimetry. The choice of analysis methodology was found to have a profound effect on estimates of the semidiurnal baroclinic SSH variance with the wave number domain methodology underestimating the semidiurnal nonstationary and total SSH variances by 68% and 66%, respectively. These results produce a SNVF estimate from altimetry that is biased low by a factor of 0.92. This bias is primarily a consequence of the ambiguity in the separation of tidal and mesoscale signals in the wave number domain.
Karmakar, N., & Misra, V. (2019). The Relation of Intraseasonal Variations With Local Onset and Demise of the Indian Summer Monsoon.
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124(5), 2483–2506.
Abstract: Two of the most important hydroclimatic features of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall are its onset/demise and Intraseasonal Oscillations (ISOs) manifested by the active‐break cycles. In this study, we aim to understand the quantitative association between these two phenomena. An objective definition of local onset/demise of the ISM based on more than a century‐long India Meteorological Department (IMD) rain‐gauge observation is taken into consideration. Using multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) we isolate northward propagating low‐ (20–60 days; LF‐ISO) and northwestward propagating high‐ (10–20 days; HF‐ISO) frequency ISOs from the daily ISM rainfall. Our results suggest that a large number of local onset (59%) and demise (62%) events occur during positive developing phases and positive decaying phases of two ISOs, respectively, with phase‐locking between LF‐ISO and HF‐ISO being particularly important. Local onset is largely associated with favorable phases of ISOs across India except for LF‐ISO over eastern India and HF‐ISO over western Ghats and central India (CI). We find that local demise is more coherent with the ISO phases, especially with HF‐ISO across the domain. We performed a case study to understand large‐scale association with the onset of the ISM over CI. In 44 of total 58 cases (1948–2005), when CI onset occurred during favorable LF‐ISO or HF‐ISO phase, they are either linked with a northward propagation of convection from the equator in LF‐ISO timescale (28 cases) or westward propagating structures from the western Pacific in HF‐ISO timescale (27 cases).
Jackson, L. C., Dubois, C., Forget, G., Haines, K., Harrison, M., Iovino, D., et al. (2019). The Mean State and Variability of the North Atlantic Circulation: A Perspective From Ocean Reanalyses.
J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 124(12), 8969–9003.
Abstract: The transfer of Indian Ocean thermocline and intermediate waters into the South Atlantic via the Agulhas leakage is generally believed to be primarily accomplished through mesoscale eddy processes, essentially anticyclones known as Agulhas Rings. Here we take advantage of a recent eddy tracking algorithm and Argo float profiles to study the evolution and the thermohaline structure of one of these eddies over the course of 1.5 years (May 2013–November 2014). We found that during this period the ring evolved according to two different phases: During the first one, taking place in winter, the mixing layer in the eddy deepened significantly. During the second phase, the eddy subsided below the upper warmer layer of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre while propagating west. The separation of this eddy from the sea surface could explain the decrease in its surface signature in satellite altimetry maps, suggesting that such changes are not due to eddy dissipation processes. It is a very large eddy (7.1×1013 m3 in volume), extending, after subduction, from a depth of 200–1,200 m and characterized by two mode water cores. The two mode water cores represent the largest eddy heat and salt anomalies when compared with the surrounding. In terms of its impact over 1 year, the north‐westward propagation of this long‐lived anticyclone induces a transport of 2.2 Sv of water, 0.008 PW of heat, and 2.2×105 kg s−1 of salt. These results confirm that Agulhas Rings play a very important role in the Indo‐Atlantic interocean exchange of heat and salt.
Ajayi, A., Le Sommer, J., Chassignet, E., Molines, J. - M., Xu, X., Albert, A., et al. (2020). Spatial and Temporal Variability of the North Atlantic Eddy Field From Two Kilometric-Resolution Ocean Models.
J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 125(5).
Abstract: Ocean circulation is dominated by turbulent geostrophic eddy fields with typical scales ranging from 10 to 300 km. At mesoscales (>50 km), the size of eddy structures varies regionally following the Rossby radius of deformation. The variability of the scale of smaller eddies is not well known due to the limitations in existing numerical simulations and satellite capability. Nevertheless, it is well established that oceanic flows (<50 km) generally exhibit strong seasonality. In this study, we present a basin‐scale analysis of coherent structures down to 10 km in the North Atlantic Ocean using two submesoscale‐permitting ocean models, a NEMO‐based North Atlantic simulation with a horizontal resolution of 1/60 (NATL60) and an HYCOM‐based Atlantic simulation with a horizontal resolution of 1/50 (HYCOM50). We investigate the spatial and temporal variability of the scale of eddy structures with a particular focus on eddies with scales of 10 to 100 km, and examine the impact of the seasonality of submesoscale energy on the seasonality and distribution of coherent structures in the North Atlantic. Our results show an overall good agreement between the two models in terms of surface wave number spectra and seasonal variability. The key findings of the paper are that (i) the mean size of ocean eddies show strong seasonality; (ii) this seasonality is associated with an increased population of submesoscale eddies (10�50 km) in winter; and (iii) the net release of available potential energy associated with mixed layer instability is responsible for the emergence of the increased population of submesoscale eddies in wintertime.
Karmakar, N., & Misra, V. (2019). Differences in Northward Propagation of Convection Over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal During Boreal Summer.
J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 125(3).
Abstract: The governing dynamics that modulate the propagation characteristics of intraseasonal oscillations (ISO) during summer monsoon over the two ocean basins, Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS), are investigated using observational analysis and high‐resolution regional coupled ocean‐atmosphere climate model simulations. ISO features are extracted over the Indian region using a data‐adaptive spectral method called multichannel singular spectrum analysis. ISO exhibits stronger intensity over the BoB than over the AS. But ISO‐filtered rainfall propagates at a faster rate ( urn:x-wiley:jgrd:media:jgrd55983:jgrd55983-math-00011.25°/day) over AS as compared to BoB ( urn:x-wiley:jgrd:media:jgrd55983:jgrd55983-math-0002.74°/day), giving rise to a northwest‐southeast tilted band of rainfall anomalies. However, the composite diagrams of several atmospheric fields associated with northward propagation like vorticity, low‐level convergence, and oceanic variables like sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth do not show this difference in propagation speed and all exhibit a speed of nearly 0.75°/day in both the ocean basins. The difference in speed of ISO‐filtered rainfall is explained through moisture flux convergence. Anomalous horizontal moisture advection plays a major role over AS in preconditioning the atmosphere and making it favorable for convection. Anomalous wind acting on climatological moisture gradient is the dominant term in the moisture advection equation. Easterly wind anomalies associated with a low‐level anticyclone over India helps advect moisture from the eastern side of the domain. The northwest‐southeast tilt of ISO is dictated by the atmospheric processes of moisture advection with the upper ocean playing a more passive role in causing the tilt.
Kim, D., Lee, S. - K., Lopez, H., Foltz, G. R., Misra, V., & Kumar, A. (2020). On the Role of Pacific-Atlantic SST Contrast and Associated Caribbean Sea Convection in August-October U.S. Regional Rainfall Variability.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 47(11).
Abstract: This study investigates the large‐scale atmospheric processes that lead to U.S. precipitation variability in late summer to midfall (August–October; ASO) and shows that the well‐recognized relationship between North Atlantic Subtropical High and U.S. precipitation in peak summer (June–August) significantly weakens in ASO. The working hypothesis derived from our analysis is that in ASO convective activity in the Caribbean Sea, modulated by the tropical Pacific‐Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly contrast, directly influences the North American Low‐Level Jet and thus U.S. precipitation east of the Rockies, through a Gill‐type response. This hypothesis derived from observations is strongly supported by a long‐term climate model simulation and by a linear baroclinic atmospheric model with prescribed diabatic forcings in the Caribbean Sea. This study integrates key findings from previous studies and advances a consistent physical rationale that links the Pacific‐Atlantic SST anomaly contrast, Caribbean Sea convective activity, and U.S. rainfall in ASO.
Nyadjro, E. S., Rydbeck, A. V., Jensen, T. G., Richman, J. G., & Shriver, J. F. (2020). On the Generation and Salinity Impacts of Intraseasonal Westward Jets in the Equatorial Indian Ocean.
J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 125(6), e2020JC016066.
Abstract: While westerly winds dominate the equatorial Indian Ocean and generate the well‐known eastward flowing Wyrtki Jets during boreal spring and fall, there is evidence of a strong westward surface jet during winter that is swifter than eastward currents during that season. A weaker westward jet is found in summer. In this study, we report the occurrence, characteristics, and intraseasonal variability of this westward jet and its impact on mixed layer salinity in the equatorial Indian Ocean using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) reanalysis with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA). The westward jet typically occurs in the upper 50 m, above an eastward flowing equatorial undercurrent, with peak westward volume transport of approximately −8 Sv. The westward jet builds up gradually, decays rapidly, and is primarily forced by local intraseasonal wind stress anomalies generated by atmospheric intraseasonal convection. Westward acceleration of the jet occurs when the dominant intraseasonal westward wind anomaly is not balanced by the zonal pressure gradient (ZPG) force. The intraseasonal westward jet generates strong horizontal advection and is the leading cause of mixed layer freshening in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Without it, a saltier mixed layer would persist and weaken any barrier layers. Existing barrier layers are strengthened following the passage of freshwater‐laden westward jets. Deceleration of the westward jet occurs when the eastward ZPG becomes increasingly important and the westward intraseasonal wind anomalies weaken. A rapid reversal of atmospheric intraseasonal convection‐driven surface winds eventually terminates the westward jet.
Kumar, V., Jana, S., Bhardwaj, A., Deepa, R., Sahu, S. K., Pradhan, P. K., et al. (2018). Greenhouse Gas Emission, Rainfall and Crop Production Over North-Western India.
TOECOLJ, 11(1), 47–61.
This study is based on datasets acquired from multi sources e.g. rain-gauges, satellite, reanalysis and coupled model for the region of Northwestern India. The influence of rainfall on crop production is obvious and direct. With the climate change and global warming, greenhouse gases are also showing an adverse impact on crop production. Greenhouse gases (e.g. CO2, NO2 and CH4) have shown an increasing trend over Northwestern Indian region. In recent years, rainfall has also shown an increasing trend over Northwestern India, while the production of rice and maize are reducing over the region. From eight selected sites, over Northwestern India, where rice and maize productions have reduced by 40%, with an increase in CO2, NO2 and CH4 gas emission by 5% from 1998 to 2011.
The correlation from one year to another between rainfall, gas emission and crop production was not very robust throughout the study period, but seemed to be stronger for some years than others.
Such trends and crop yield are attributed to rainfall, greenhouse gas emissions and to the climate variability.
Ali, M. M. (2020). Is it high time to use ocean mean temperature for monsoon prediction?
Abstract: A monsoon is a seasonal reversal in the prevailing wind direction, that is usually initiated by the land sea temperature contrast. The Indian summer monsoon, for example, is triggered when the land gets heated up more than the surrounding sea during the summer creating a pressure gradient between the land and the sea. It is well known that the ocean thermal energy required for fueling monsoon circulations comes from the upper layer of the ocean (e.g. Venugopal et al. 2018). But such amount of energy does not come from the top thin layer represented by sea surface temperature (SST) alone. Nevertheless, often SST does not represent the thermal energy available in the upper ocean, although this parameter has been the only oceanographic input to the cyclone and monsoon atmospheric numerical and statistical models.
Carstens, J. (2019).
Tropical Cyclogenesis from Self-aggregated Convection in Numerical Simulations of Rotating Radiative-convective Equilibrium. Florida State University - FCLA; ProQuest Dissertations & Theses Global.
Abstract: Organized convection is of critical importance in the tropical atmosphere. Recent advances in numerical modeling have revealed that moist convection can interact with its environment to transition from a quasi-random to organized state. This phenomenon, known as convective self-aggregation,is aided by feedbacks involving clouds, water vapor, and radiation that increase the spatial variance of column-integrated frozen moist static energy. Prior studies have shown self-aggregation to takeseveral different forms, including that of spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis in an environment of rotating radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). This study expands upon previous work to address the processes leading to tropical cyclogenesis in this rotating RCE framework. More specifically,a three-dimensional, cloud-resolving numerical model is used to examine the self-aggregation of convection and potential cyclogenesis, and the background planetary vorticity is varied on an f-plane across simulations to represent a range of deep tropical and near-equatorial environments.Convection is initialized randomly in an otherwise homogeneous environment, with no background wind, precursor disturbance, or other synoptic-scale forcing.All simulations with planetary vorticity corresponding to latitudes from 10°to 20°generate intense tropical cyclones, with maximum wind speeds of 80 m s−1or above. Time to genesis varies widely, even within a five-member ensemble of 20°simulations, reflecting a potential degree of stochastic variability based in part on the initial random distribution of convection. Shared across this so-called “high-f” group is the emergence of a midlevel vortex in the days leading to genesis,which has dynamic and thermodynamic implications on its environment that facilitate the spinup of a low-level vortex. Tropical cyclogenesis is possible in this model even at values of Coriolis parameter as low as that representative of 1°. In these experiments, convection self-aggregates into a quasi-circular cluster, which then begins to rotate and gradually strengthen into a tropical storm, aided by near-surface inflow and shallow overturning radial circulations aloft within the aggregated cluster. Other experiments at these lower Coriolis parameters instead self-aggregate into an elongated band and fail to undergo cyclogenesis over the 100-day simulation. A large portion of this study is devoted to examining in greater detail the dynamic and thermodynamic evolution of cyclogenesis in these experiments and comparing the physical mechanisms to current theories.