Morey, S. L., Wienders, N., Dukhovskoy, D. S., & Bourassa, M. A. (2018). Impact of Stokes Drift on Measurements of Surface Currents from Drifters and HF Radar. In
American Geophysical Union (Vol. Fall Meeting).
Abstract: Concurrent measurements by surface drifters of different configurations and HF radar reveal substantial differences in estimates of the near-surface seawater velocity. On average, speeds of small ultra-thin (5 cm) drifters are significantly greater than co-located drifters with a traditional shallow drogue design, while velocity measurements from the drogued drifters closely match HF radar velocity estimates. Analysis of directional wave spectra measurements from a nearby buoy reveals that Stokes drift accounts for much of the difference between the velocity measurements from the drogued drifters and the ultra-thin drifters, except during times of wave breaking. Under wave breaking conditions, the difference between the ultra-thin drifter velocity and the drogued drifter velocity is much less than the computed Stokes drift. The results suggest that surface currents measured by more common approaches or simulated in models may underrepresent the velocity at the very surface of the ocean that is important for determining momentum and enthalpy fluxes between the ocean and atmosphere and for estimating transport of material at the ocean surface. However, simply adding an estimate of Stokes drift may also not be an appropriate method for estimating the true surface velocity from models or measurements from drogued drifters or HF radar under all sea conditions.
Fox-Kemper, B., Adcroft, A., Böning, C. W., Chassignet, E. P., Curchitser, E., Danabasoglu, G., et al. (2019). Challenges and Prospects in Ocean Circulation Models.
Front. Mar. Sci., 6.
Abstract: We revisit the challenges and prospects for ocean circulation models following Griffies et al. (2010). Over the past decade, ocean circulation models evolved through improved understanding, numerics, spatial discretization, grid configurations, parameterizations, data assimilation, environmental monitoring, and process-level observations and modeling. Important large scale applications over the last decade are simulations of the Southern Ocean, the Meridional Overturning Circulation and its variability, and regional sea level change. Submesoscale variability is now routinely resolved in process models and permitted in a few global models, and submesoscale effects are parameterized in most global models. The scales where nonhydrostatic effects become important are beginning to be resolved in regional and process models. Coupling to sea ice, ice shelves, and high-resolution atmospheric models has stimulated new ideas and driven improvements in numerics. Observations have provided insight into turbulence and mixing around the globe and its consequences are assessed through perturbed physics models. Relatedly, parameterizations of the mixing and overturning processes in boundary layers and the ocean interior have improved. New diagnostics being used for evaluating models alongside present and novel observations are briefly referenced. The overall goal is summarizing new developments in ocean modeling, including how new and existing observations can be used, what modeling challenges remain, and how simulations can be used to support observations.
Gentemann, C. L., Clayson, C. A., Brown, S., Lee, T., Parfitt, R., Farrar, J. T., et al. (2020). FluxSat: Measuring the Ocean-Atmosphere Turbulent Exchange of Heat and Moisture from Space.
Remote Sensing, 12(11), 1796.
Abstract: Recent results using wind and sea surface temperature data from satellites and high-resolution coupled models suggest that mesoscale ocean-atmosphere interactions affect the locations and evolution of storms and seasonal precipitation over continental regions such as the western US and Europe. The processes responsible for this coupling are difficult to verify due to the paucity of accurate air-sea turbulent heat and moisture flux data. These fluxes are currently derived by combining satellite measurements that are not coincident and have differing and relatively low spatial resolutions, introducing sampling errors that are largest in regions with high spatial and temporal variability. Observational errors related to sensor design also contribute to increased uncertainty. Leveraging recent advances in sensor technology, we here describe a satellite mission concept, FluxSat, that aims to simultaneously measure all variables necessary for accurate estimation of ocean-atmosphere turbulent heat and moisture fluxes and capture the effect of oceanic mesoscale forcing. Sensor design is expected to reduce observational errors of the latent and sensible heat fluxes by almost 50%. FluxSat will improve the accuracy of the fluxes at spatial scales critical to understanding the coupled ocean-atmosphere boundary layer system, providing measurements needed to improve weather forecasts and climate model simulations.
Zhao, X., Zhou, C., Xu, X., Ye, R., Tian, J., & Zhao, W. (2019). Deep Circulation in the South China Sea Simulated in a Regional Model.
Ocean Sci. Discuss, .
Abstract: The South China Sea (SCS) is the largest marginal sea in the northwest Pacific Ocean. In this study, deep circulation in the SCS is investigated using results from eddy-resolving, regional simulations using the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) verified by continuous current-meter observations. Analysis of these results provides a detailed spatial structure and temporal variability of the deep circulation in the SCS. The major features of the SCS deep circulation are a basin-scale cyclonic gyre and a concentrated deep western boundary current (DWBC). Transport of the DWBC is ∼ 2 Sv at 16.5° N with a width of ∼53 km. Flowing southwestward, the narrow DWBC becomes weaker with a wider range. The model results reveal the existence of 80- to 120-day oscillation in the deep northeastern circulation and the DWBC, which are also the areas with elevated eddy kinetic energy. This intraseasonal oscillation propagates northwestward with a velocity amplitude of ∼ 1.0 to 1.5 cm s-1. The distribution of mixing parameters in the deep SCS plays a role in both spatial structure and volume transport of the deep circulation. Compared with the northern shelf of the SCS with the Luzon Strait, deep circulation in the SCS is more sensitive to the large vertical mixing parameters of the Zhongsha Island Chain area.
Groenen, D. (2018). The Effects of Climate Change on the Pests and Diseases of Coffee Crops in Mesoamerica.
Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting, 6(3).
Abstract: Coffee is an in-demand commodity that is being threatened by climate change. Increasing temperatures and rainfall variability are predicted in the region of Mexico and Central America (Mesoamerica). This region is plagued with pests and diseases that have already caused millions of dollars in damages and losses to the coffee industry.This paper examines three pests that negatively affect coffee plants: the coffee borer beetle, the black twig borer,and nematodes. In addition, this paper examines three diseases that can destroy coffee crops: bacterial blight,coffee berry disease, and coffee leaf rust. This paper will review the literature on how these pests and diseases are predicted to affect coffee crops under climate change models. In general, increased temperatures will increase the spread of pest and disease in coffee crops. Projected decreased rainfall in Honduras and Nicaragua may decrease the spread of pest and disease. However, these are complex issues which still require further study.
Bashmachnikov, I. L., Fedorov, A. M., Vesman, A. V., Belonenko, T. V., & Dukhovskoy, D. S. (2019). Thermohaline convection in the subpolar seas of the North Atlantic from satellite and in situ observations. Part 2: indices of intensity of deep convection.
Abstract: Variation in locations of the maximum development of deep convection in the subpolar seas, taking into account their small dimensions, represent difficulty in identifying its interannual variability from usually sparse in situ data. In this work, the interannual variability of the maximum convection depth, is obtained using one of the most complete datasets ARMOR, which combines in situ and satellite data. The convection depths, derived from ARMOR, are used for testing the efficiency of two indices of convection intensity: (1) sea-level anomalies from satellite altimetry and (2) the integral water density in the areas of the most frequent development of deep convection. The first index, capturing some details, shows low correlations with the interannual variability of the deep convection intensity. The second index shows high correlation with the deep convection intensity in the Greenland, Irminger and Labrador seas. Asynchronous variations in the deep convection intensity in the Labrador-Irminger seas and in the Greenland Sea are obtained. In the Labrador and in the Irminger seas, the quasi-seven-year variations in the convection intensity are identified.
Ali, A., Christensen, K. H., Breivik, Ø., Malila, M., Raj, R. P., Bertino, L., et al. (2019). A comparison of Langmuir turbulence parameterizations and key wave effects in a numerical model of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans.
Ocean Modelling, 137, 76–97.
Abstract: Five different parameterizations of Langmuir turbulence (LT) effect are investigated in a realistic model of the North Atlantic and Arctic using realistic wave forcing from a global wave hindcast. The parameterizations mainly apply an enhancement to the turbulence velocity scale, and/or to the entrainment buoyancy flux in the surface boundary layer. An additional run is also performed with other wave effects to assess the relative importance of Langmuir turbulence, namely the Coriolis-Stokes forcing, Stokes tracer advection and wave-modified momentum fluxes. The default model (without wave effects) underestimates the mixed layer depth in summer and overestimates it at high latitudes in the winter. The results show that adding LT mixing reduces shallow mixed layer depth (MLD) biases, particularly in the subtropics all year-around, and in the Nordic Seas in summer. There is overall a stronger relative impact on the MLD during winter than during summer. In particular, the parameterization with the most vigorous LT effect causes winter MLD increases by more than 50% relative to a control run without Langmuir mixing. On the contrary, the parameterization which assumes LT effects on the entrainment buoyancy flux and accounts for the Stokes penetration depth is able to enhance the mixing in summer more than in winter. This parametrization is also distinct from the others because it restrains the LT mixing in regions of deep MLD biases, so it is the preferred choice for our purpose. The different parameterizations do not change the amplitude or phase of the seasonal cycle of heat content but do influence its long-term trend, which means that the LT can influence the drift of ocean models. The combined impact on water mass properties from the Coriolis-Stokes force, the Stokes drift tracer advection, and the wave-dependent momentum fluxes is negligible compared to the effect from the parameterized Langmuir turbulence.