Conlon, K. C., Kintziger, K. W., Jagger, M., Stefanova, L., Uejio, C. K., & Konrad, C. (2016). Working with Climate Projections to Estimate Disease Burden: Perspectives from Public Health.
Int J Environ Res Public Health, 13(8).
Abstract: There is interest among agencies and public health practitioners in the United States (USA) to estimate the future burden of climate-related health outcomes. Calculating disease burden projections can be especially daunting, given the complexities of climate modeling and the multiple pathways by which climate influences public health. Interdisciplinary coordination between public health practitioners and climate scientists is necessary for scientifically derived estimates. We describe a unique partnership of state and regional climate scientists and public health practitioners assembled by the Florida Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) program. We provide a background on climate modeling and projections that has been developed specifically for public health practitioners, describe methodologies for combining climate and health data to project disease burden, and demonstrate three examples of this process used in Florida.
Maue, R. N., & Hart, R. E. (2007). Comment on “Low frequency variability in globally integrated tropical cyclone power dissipation” by Ryan Sriver and Matthew Huber.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 34(11).
Parfitt, R., Ummenhofer, C. C., Buckley, B. M., Hansen, K. G., & D'Arrigo, R. D. (2020). Distinct seasonal climate drivers revealed in a network of tree-ring records from Labrador, Canada.
Clim Dyn, 54(3-4), 1897–1911.
Abstract: Traditionally, high-latitude dendroclimatic studies have focused on measurements of total ring width (RW), with the maximum density of the latewood (MXD) serving as a complementary variable. Whilst MXD has typically improved the strength of the growing season climate connection over that of RW, its measurements are costly and time-consuming. Recently, a less costly and more time-efficient technique to extract density measurements has emerged, based on lignin's propensity to absorb blue light. This Blue Intensity (BI) methodology is based on image analyses of finely-sanded core samples, and the relative ease with which density measurements can be extracted allows for significant increases in spatio-temporal sample depth. While some studies have attempted to combine RW and MXD as predictors for summer temperature reconstructions, here we evaluate a systematic comparison of the climate signal for RW and latewood BI (LWBI) separately, using a recently updated and expanded tree ring database for Labrador, Canada. We demonstrate that while RW responds primarily to climatic drivers earlier in the growing season (January-April), LWBI is more responsive to climate conditions during late spring and summer (May-August). Furthermore, RW appears to be driven primarily by large-scale atmospheric dynamics associated with the Pacific North American pattern, whilst LWBI is more closely associated with local climate conditions, themselves linked to the behaviour of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Lastly, we demonstrate that anomalously wide or narrow growth rings consistently respond to the same climate drivers as average growth years, whereas the sensitivity of LWBI to extreme climate conditions appears to be enhanced.
Smith, R. A. (2007).
Trends in Maximum and Minimum Temperature Deciles in Select Regions of the United States. Master's thesis, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL.
Abstract: Daily maximum and minimum temperature data from 758 COOP stations in nineteen states are used to create temperature decile maps. All stations used contain records from 1948 through 2004 and could not be missing more than 5 consecutive years of data. Missing data are replaced using a multiple linear regression technique from surrounding stations. For each station, the maximum and minimum temperatures are first sorted in ascending order for every two years (to reduce annual variability) and divided into ten equal parts (or deciles). The first decile represents the coldest temperatures, and the last decile contains the warmest temperatures. Patterns and trends in these deciles can be examined for the 57-year period. A linear least-squares regression method is used to calculate best-fit lines for each decile to determine the long-term trends at each station. Significant warming or cooling is determined using the Student's t-test, and bootstrapping the decile data will further examine the validity of significance. Two stations are closely examined. Apalachicola, Florida shows significant warming in its maximum deciles and significant cooling in its minimum deciles. The maximum deciles seem to be affected by some localized change. The minimum deciles are discontinuous, and the trends are a result of a minor station move. Columbus, Georgia has experienced significant warming in its minimum deciles, and this appears to be the result of an urban heat-island effect. The discontinuities seen in the Apalachicola case study illustrate the need for a quality control method. This method will eliminate stations from the regional analysis that experience large changes in the ten-year standard deviations within their time series. The regional analysis shows that most of the region is dominated by significant cooling in the maximum deciles and significant warming in the minimum deciles, with more variability in the lower deciles. Field significance testing is performed on subregions (based on USGS 2000 land cover data) and supports the findings from the regional analysis; it also isolates regions, such as the Florida peninsula and the Maryland/Delaware region, that appear to be affected by more local forcings.
Wu, Z., Huang, N. E., Wallace, J. M., Smoliak, B. V., & Chen, X. (2011). On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature.
Clim Dyn, 37(3-4), 759–773.
Zhang, M., Zhang, Y., Shu, Q., Zhao, C., Wang, G., Wu, Z., et al. (2018). Spatiotemporal evolution of the chlorophyll a trend in the North Atlantic Ocean.
Sci Total Environ, 612, 1141–1148.
Abstract: Analyses of the chlorophyll a concentration (chla) from satellite ocean color products have suggested the decadal-scale variability of chla linked to the climate change. The decadal-scale variability in chla is both spatially and temporally non-uniform. We need to understand the spatiotemporal evolution of chla in decadal or multi-decadal timescales to better evaluate its linkage to climate variability. Here, the spatiotemporal evolution of the chla trend in the North Atlantic Ocean for the period 1997-2016 is analyzed using the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. We find that this variable trend signal of chla shows a dipole pattern between the subpolar gyre and along the Gulf Stream path, and propagation along the opposite direction of the North Atlantic Current. This propagation signal has an overlapping variability of approximately twenty years. Our findings suggest that the spatiotemporal evolution of chla during the two most recent decades is part of the multidecadal variations and possibly regulated by the changes of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, whereas the mechanisms of such evolution patterns still need to be explored.
Zou, M., Xiong, X., Wu, Z., Li, S., Zhang, Y., & Chen, L. (2019). Increase of Atmospheric Methane Observed from Space-Borne and Ground-Based Measurements.
Remote Sensing, 11(8).
Abstract: It has been found that the concentration of atmospheric methane (CH4) has rapidly increased since 2007 after a decade of nearly constant concentration in the atmosphere. As an important greenhouse gas, such an increase could enhance the threat of global warming. To better quantify this increasing trend, a novel statistic method, i.e. the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method, was used to analyze the CH4 trends from three different measurements: the mid-upper tropospheric CH4 (MUT) from the space-borne measurements by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the CH4 in the marine boundary layer (MBL) from NOAA ground-based in-situ measurements, and the column-averaged CH4 in the atmosphere (X-CH4) from the ground-based up-looking Fourier Transform Spectrometers at Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). Comparison of the CH4 trends in the mid-upper troposphere, lower troposphere, and the column average from these three data sets shows that, overall, these trends agree well in capturing the abrupt CH4 increase in 2007 (the first peak) and an even faster increase after 2013 (the second peak) over the globe. The increased rates of CH4 in the MUT, as observed by AIRS, are overall smaller than CH4 in MBL and the column-average CH4. During 2009-2011, there was a dip in the increase rate for CH4 in MBL, and the MUT-CH4 increase rate was almost negligible in the mid-high latitude regions. The increase of the column-average CH4 also reached the minimum during 2009-2011 accordingly, suggesting that the trends of CH4 are not only impacted by the surface emission, however that they also may be impacted by other processes like transport and chemical reaction loss associated with [OH]. One advantage of the EEMD analysis is to derive the monthly rate and the results show that the frequency of the variability of CH4 increase rates in the mid-high northern latitude regions is larger than those in the tropics and southern hemisphere.