Conlon, K. C., Kintziger, K. W., Jagger, M., Stefanova, L., Uejio, C. K., & Konrad, C. (2016). Working with Climate Projections to Estimate Disease Burden: Perspectives from Public Health.
Int J Environ Res Public Health, 13(8).
Abstract: There is interest among agencies and public health practitioners in the United States (USA) to estimate the future burden of climate-related health outcomes. Calculating disease burden projections can be especially daunting, given the complexities of climate modeling and the multiple pathways by which climate influences public health. Interdisciplinary coordination between public health practitioners and climate scientists is necessary for scientifically derived estimates. We describe a unique partnership of state and regional climate scientists and public health practitioners assembled by the Florida Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) program. We provide a background on climate modeling and projections that has been developed specifically for public health practitioners, describe methodologies for combining climate and health data to project disease burden, and demonstrate three examples of this process used in Florida.
Harris, R., Pollman, C., Hutchinson, D., Landing, W., Axelrad, D., Morey, S. L., et al. (2012). A screening model analysis of mercury sources, fate and bioaccumulation in the Gulf of Mexico.
Environ Res, 119, 53–63.
Abstract: A mass balance model of mercury (Hg) cycling and bioaccumulation was applied to the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf), coupled with outputs from hydrodynamic and atmospheric Hg deposition models. The dominant overall source of Hg to the Gulf is the Atlantic Ocean. Gulf waters do not mix fully however, resulting in predicted spatial differences in the relative importance of external Hg sources to Hg levels in water, sediments and biota. Direct atmospheric Hg deposition, riverine inputs, and Atlantic inputs were each predicted to be the most important source of Hg to at least one of the modeled regions in the Gulf. While incomplete, mixing of Gulf waters is predicted to be sufficient that fish Hg levels in any given location are affected by Hg entering other regions of the Gulf. This suggests that a Gulf-wide approach is warranted to reduce Hg loading and elevated Hg concentrations currently observed in some fish species. Basic data to characterize Hg concentrations and cycling in the Gulf are lacking but needed to adequately understand the relationship between Hg sources and fish Hg concentrations.
Harris, R., Pollman, C., Landing, W., Evans, D., Axelrad, D., Hutchinson, D., et al. (2012). Mercury in the Gulf of Mexico: sources to receptors.
Environ Res, 119, 42–52.
Abstract: Gulf of Mexico (Gulf) fisheries account for 41% of the U.S. marine recreational fish catch and 16% of the nation's marine commercial fish landings. Mercury (Hg) concentrations are elevated in some fish species in the Gulf, including king mackerel, sharks, and tilefish. All five Gulf states have fish consumption advisories based on Hg. Per-capita fish consumption in the Gulf region is elevated compared to the U.S. national average, and recreational fishers in the region have a potential for greater MeHg exposure due to higher levels of fish consumption. Atmospheric wet Hg deposition is estimated to be higher in the Gulf region compared to most other areas in the U.S., but the largest source of Hg to the Gulf as a whole is the Atlantic Ocean (>90%) via large flows associated with the Loop Current. Redistribution of atmospheric, Atlantic and terrestrial Hg inputs to the Gulf occurs via large scale water circulation patterns, and further work is needed to refine estimates of the relative importance of these Hg sources in terms of contributing to fish Hg levels in different regions of the Gulf. Measurements are needed to better quantify external loads, in-situ concentrations, and fluxes of total Hg and methylmercury in the water column, sediments, and food web.
Liu, Q., Tan, Z. - M., Sun, J., Hou, Y., Fu, C., & Wu, Z. (2020). Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate.
Environmental Research Letters, 15(4).
Abstract: The continuing change of the Earth's climate is believed to affect the influenza viral activity and transmission in the coming decades. However, a consensus of the severity of the risk of influenza epidemic in a warming climate has not been reached. It was previously reported that the warmer winter can reduce influenza epidemic-caused mortality, but this relation cannot explain the deadly influenza epidemic in many countries over northern mid-latitudes in the winter of 2017-2018, one of the warmest winters in recent decades. Here we reveal that the widely spread 2017-2018 influenza epidemic can be attributed to the abnormally strong rapid weather variability. We demonstrate, from historical data, that the large rapid weather variability in autumn can precondition the deadly influenza epidemic in the subsequent months in highly populated northern mid-latitudes; and the influenza epidemic season of 2017-2018 was a typical case. We further show that climate model projections reach a consensus that the rapid weather variability in autumn will continue to strengthen in some regions of northern mid-latitudes in a warming climate, implying that the risk of influenza epidemic may increase 20% to 50% in some highly populated regions in later 21st century.