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Liu, Q., Tan, Z. - M., Sun, J., Hou, Y., Fu, C., & Wu, Z. (2020). Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate. Environmental Research Letters, 15(4).
Abstract: The continuing change of the Earth's climate is believed to affect the influenza viral activity and transmission in the coming decades. However, a consensus of the severity of the risk of influenza epidemic in a warming climate has not been reached. It was previously reported that the warmer winter can reduce influenza epidemic-caused mortality, but this relation cannot explain the deadly influenza epidemic in many countries over northern mid-latitudes in the winter of 2017-2018, one of the warmest winters in recent decades. Here we reveal that the widely spread 2017-2018 influenza epidemic can be attributed to the abnormally strong rapid weather variability. We demonstrate, from historical data, that the large rapid weather variability in autumn can precondition the deadly influenza epidemic in the subsequent months in highly populated northern mid-latitudes; and the influenza epidemic season of 2017-2018 was a typical case. We further show that climate model projections reach a consensus that the rapid weather variability in autumn will continue to strengthen in some regions of northern mid-latitudes in a warming climate, implying that the risk of influenza epidemic may increase 20% to 50% in some highly populated regions in later 21st century.
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|Chassignet, E. P., Jones, J. W., Misra, V., & Obeysekera, J. (2017). Florida's Climate: Changes, Variations, & Impacts.|
|Fairall, C. W., Barnier, B., Berry, D.I, Bourassa, M.A., Bradley, E.F., Clayson, C.A., de Leeuw, G., Drennan, W.M., Gille, S.T., Gulev, S.K., Kent, E.C., McGillis, W.R., Quartly, G.D., Ryabinin, V., Smith, S.R., Weller, R.A., Yelland, M.J. and Zhang, H-M. (2010). Observations to Quantify Air-Sea Fluxes and Their Role in Climate Variability and Predictability. In D.(eds.) D.E. and Stammer Harrison J. Hall (Ed.), Proceedings of OceanObs'09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society, Vol. 2 (pp. 299–313). European Space Agency.|
Robinson, W., Speich, S., & Chassignet, E. (2018). Exploring the Interplay Between Ocean Eddies and the Atmosphere. Eos, 99.
Abstract: Climate models, for the first time, have sufficient resolution to capture mesoscale ocean eddies and their interactions with the atmosphere.New model results suggest that the atmosphere, at weather scales or larger, responds to cumulative effects of the much smaller ocean eddies. Intriguing new model results presented at the workshop suggested that the atmosphere, at weather scales or larger.
Keywords: Mesoscale; Climate; Variability; Atmospheric
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|Kirtman, B. P., Misra, V., Anandhi, A., Palko, D., & Infanti, J. (2017). Future Climate Change Scenarios for Florida. In E. P. Chassignet, J. W. Jones, V. Misra, & J. Obeysekera (Eds.), Florida's climate: Changes, variations, & impacts (pp. 533–555). Gainesville, FL: Florida Climate Institute.|
|Kirtman, B. P., Misra, V., Burgman, R. J., Infanti, J., & Obeysekera, J. (2017). Florida Climate Variability and Prediction. In E. P. Chassignet, J. W. Jones, V. Misra, & J. Obeysekera (Eds.), Florida's climate: Changes, variations, & impacts (pp. 511–532). Gainesville, FL: Florida Climate Institute.|