COAPS Virtual Library (Publications)

Lim, Y. - K., & Kim, K. - Y. (2006). A New Perspective on the Climate Prediction of Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation. J. Climate, 19(19), 4840–4853. Keywords: Monsoons; Asia; Intraseasonal variability; Precipitation https://www.coaps.fsu.edu/bibliography/show.php?record=708
Lim, Y. - K., LaRow, T. E., O'Brien, J. J., & Shin, D. W. (2006). Statistical downscaling of the FSUGSM temperature over the southeast United States. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modeling, CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation. https://www.coaps.fsu.edu/bibliography/show.php?record=928
Morey, S. L., Bourassa, M. A., Dukhovskoy, D. S., & O'Brien, J. J. (2006). Modeling the impacts of remote forcing on hurricane storm surge (J. Cote, Ed.). Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modeling, Report No. 36. Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization. https://www.coaps.fsu.edu/bibliography/show.php?record=926
Morey, S. L., Baig, S., Bourassa, M. A., Dukhovskoy, D. S., & O'Brien, J. J. (2006). Remote forcing contribution to storm-induced sea level rise during Hurricane Dennis. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33(19). https://www.coaps.fsu.edu/bibliography/show.php?record=433
Morey, S. L., Bourassa, M. A., Dukhovskoy, D. S., & O'Brien, J. J. (2006). Modeling studies of the upper ocean response to a tropical cyclone. Ocean Dynamics, 56(5-6), 594–606. Keywords: air-sea interaction; tropical cyclones; ocean modeling; air-sea fluxes https://www.coaps.fsu.edu/bibliography/show.php?record=432
Palacios-Hernández, E., Carrillo, L., Lavín, M. F., Zamudio, L., & García-Sandoval, A. (2006). Hydrography and circulation in the Northern Gulf of California during winter of 1994-1995. Continental Shelf Research, 26(1), 82–103. Keywords: seasonal circulation; gyres; coastally trapped waves; ENSO; Gulf of California https://www.coaps.fsu.edu/bibliography/show.php?record=442
Petraitis, D. C. (2006). Long-Term ENSO-Related Winter Rainfall Predictions over the Southeast U.S. Using the FSU Global Spectral Model. Master's thesis, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL. Abstract: Rainfall patterns over the Southeast U.S. have been found to be connected to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Warm ENSO events cause positive precipitation anomalies and cold ENSO events cause negative precipitation anomalies. With this level of connection, models can be used to test the predictability of ENSO events. Using the Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM), model data over a 50-year period will be evaluated for its similarity to observations. The FSUGSM is a global spectral model with a T63 horizontal resolution (approximately 1.875°) and 17 unevenly spaced vertical levels. Details of this model can be found in Cocke and LaRow (2000). The experiment utilizes two runs using the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) RAS convection scheme and two runs using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) SAS convection scheme to comprise the ensemble. The simulation was done for 50 years, from 1950 to 1999. Reynolds and Smith monthly mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1950-1999 provide the lower boundary condition. Atmospheric and land conditions from January 1, 1987 and January 1, 1995 were used as the initial starting conditions. The observational precipitation data being used as the basis for comparison is a gridded global dataset from Willmott and Matsuura (2005). Phase precipitation differences show higher precipitation amounts for El Niño than La Niña in all model runs. Temporal correlations between model runs and the observations show southern and eastern areas with the highest correlation values during an ENSO event. Skill scores validate the findings of the model/observation correlations, with southern and eastern areas showing scores close to zero. Temporal correlations between tropical Pacific SSTs and Southeast precipitation further confirm the model's ability to predict ENSO precipitation patterns over the Southeast U.S. The inconsistency in the SST/precipitation correlations between the models can be attributed to differences in the 200-mb jet stream and 500-mb height anomalies. Slight differences in position and strength for both variables affect the teleconnection between tropical Pacific SSTs and Southeast. Keywords: Correlation, Model, Precipitation, ENSO, Skill Score https://www.coaps.fsu.edu/bibliography/show.php?record=618
Schoof, J. T., & Pryor, S. C. (2006). An evaluation of two GCMs: simulation of North American teleconnection indices and synoptic phenomena. Int. J. Climatol., 26(2), 267–282. Keywords: GCM evaluation; PNA; NAO; Midwest USA https://www.coaps.fsu.edu/bibliography/show.php?record=440
Shin, D. W., Bellow, J. G., Cocke, S., LaRow, T. E., & O'Brien, J. J. (2006). Seasonal dynamical downscaling for crop yield estimation. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modeling, CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation. https://www.coaps.fsu.edu/bibliography/show.php?record=931
Shin, D. W., Bellow, J. G., LaRow, T. E., Cocke, S., & O'Brien, J. J. (2006). The Role of an Advanced Land Model in Seasonal Dynamical Downscaling for Crop Model Application. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 45(5), 686–701. https://www.coaps.fsu.edu/bibliography/show.php?record=439

Lim, Y. - K., & Kim, K. - Y. (2006). A New Perspective on the Climate Prediction of Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation. J. Climate, 19(19), 4840–4853.

Morey, S. L., Bourassa, M. A., Dukhovskoy, D. S., & O'Brien, J. J. (2006). Modeling the impacts of remote forcing on hurricane storm surge (J. Cote, Ed.). Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modeling, Report No. 36. Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization.

Morey, S. L., Bourassa, M. A., Dukhovskoy, D. S., & O'Brien, J. J. (2006). Modeling studies of the upper ocean response to a tropical cyclone. Ocean Dynamics, 56(5-6), 594–606.

Petraitis, D. C. (2006). Long-Term ENSO-Related Winter Rainfall Predictions over the Southeast U.S. Using the FSU Global Spectral Model. Master's thesis, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL.

Abstract: Rainfall patterns over the Southeast U.S. have been found to be connected to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Warm ENSO events cause positive precipitation anomalies and cold ENSO events cause negative precipitation anomalies. With this level of connection, models can be used to test the predictability of ENSO events. Using the Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM), model data over a 50-year period will be evaluated for its similarity to observations. The FSUGSM is a global spectral model with a T63 horizontal resolution (approximately 1.875°) and 17 unevenly spaced vertical levels. Details of this model can be found in Cocke and LaRow (2000). The experiment utilizes two runs using the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) RAS convection scheme and two runs using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) SAS convection scheme to comprise the ensemble. The simulation was done for 50 years, from 1950 to 1999. Reynolds and Smith monthly mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from 1950-1999 provide the lower boundary condition. Atmospheric and land conditions from January 1, 1987 and January 1, 1995 were used as the initial starting conditions. The observational precipitation data being used as the basis for comparison is a gridded global dataset from Willmott and Matsuura (2005). Phase precipitation differences show higher precipitation amounts for El Niño than La Niña in all model runs. Temporal correlations between model runs and the observations show southern and eastern areas with the highest correlation values during an ENSO event. Skill scores validate the findings of the model/observation correlations, with southern and eastern areas showing scores close to zero. Temporal correlations between tropical Pacific SSTs and Southeast precipitation further confirm the model's ability to predict ENSO precipitation patterns over the Southeast U.S. The inconsistency in the SST/precipitation correlations between the models can be attributed to differences in the 200-mb jet stream and 500-mb height anomalies. Slight differences in position and strength for both variables affect the teleconnection between tropical Pacific SSTs and Southeast.

Keywords: Correlation, Model, Precipitation, ENSO, Skill Score

https://www.coaps.fsu.edu/bibliography/show.php?record=618

Shin, D. W., Bellow, J. G., Cocke, S., LaRow, T. E., & O'Brien, J. J. (2006). Seasonal dynamical downscaling for crop yield estimation. Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modeling, CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation.

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