Abstract: The cumulative Greenland freshwater flux anomaly has exceeded 5000 km3 since the 1990s. The volume of this surplus fresh water is expected to cause substantial freshening in the North Atlantic. Analysis of hydrographic observations in the subpolar seas reveal freshening signals in the 2010s. The sources of this freshening are yet to be determined. In this study, the relationship between the surplus Greenland freshwater flux and this freshening is tested by analyzing the propagation of the Greenland freshwater anomaly and its impact on salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic based on observational data and numerical experiments with and without the Greenland runoff. A passive tracer is continuously released during the simulations at freshwater sources along the coast of Greenland to track the Greenland freshwater anomaly. Tracer budget analysis shows that 44% of the volume of the Greenland freshwater anomaly is retained in the subpolar North Atlantic by the end of the simulation. This volume is sufficient to cause strong freshening in the subpolar seas if it stays in the upper 50�100 m. However, in the model the anomaly is mixed down to several hundred meters of the water column resulting in smaller magnitudes of freshening compared to the observations. Therefore, the simulations suggest that the accelerated Greenland melting would not be sufficient to cause the observed freshening in the subpolar seas and other sources of fresh water have contributed to the freshening. Impacts on salinity in the subpolar seas of the freshwater transport through Fram Strait and precipitation are discussed.

Abstract: The spatial and temporal variability of the surface turbulent heat fluxes over the North Atlantic is examined using the new objectively produced FSU3 monthly mean 1°x1° gridded wind and surface flux product for 1978-2003. The FSU3 product is constructed from in situ ship and buoy observations via a variational technique. A cost function based on weighted constraints is minimized in the process of determining the surface fluxes. The analysis focuses on a low frequency (basin wide) mode of variability where the latent and sensible heat flux anomalies transition from mainly positive to negative values around 1998. It is hypothesized that the longer time scale variability is linked to changes in the large scale circulation patterns possibly associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO; Schlesinger and Ramankutty 1994, Kerr 2000). The changes in the surface heat fluxes are forced by fluctuations in the mean wind speed. Zonal averages show a clear dissimilarity between the turbulent heat fluxes and wind speed for 1982-1997 and 1998-2003 over the region extending from the equator to roughly 40°N. Larger values are associated with the earlier time period, coinciding with a cool phase of the AMO. The separation between the two time periods is much less evident for the humidity and air/sea temperature differences. The largest differences in the latent heat fluxes, between the two time periods, occur over the tropical, Gulf Stream, and higher latitude regions of the North Atlantic, with magnitudes exceeding 15 Wm-2. The largest sensible heat flux differences are limited to areas along the New England coast and poleward of 40°N.