This is an initiative of FSU COAPS and FSU-UF FCI to promote education and appreciation for climate science, through hands on experience for students and researchers with climate prediction on an operational basis. We realize that successful climate prediction efforts are contagious and encouraging both to the novice and the veteran. On the other hand failures can lead on many an occasion to important and scientific questions. Therefore, despite the strenuous engagement of keeping this operational system going, the benefits of having this enterprise in a vibrant thriving educational institution over ride the inconveniences.
Seasonal forecasts: 12 ensemble members, 7 month long seasonal forecasts from the GSM is initiated at the beginning of each month of the year. The 12 members are generated as follows:
The atmospheric initial conditions are borrowed from the 10 ensemble members of the AMIP run (the members of the GSM are forced with observed SST and it has been integrated from 1950 onwards and updated every month when the observed SST is made available). The first 4 initial conditions of the atmosphere are forced by the mean SST prediction (average of 3 SST predictions), a minus SST prediction (the mean SST prediction minus an uncertainty factor), and a "plus" SST prediction (the mean SST prediction plus an uncertainty factor). This gives rise to the total 12 ensemble members. The SST prediction is made available from IRI.
In addition there is a 10 ensemble member seasonal forecast for 4-month period with persisted SST.