Rain puts damper on drought threat

By Gerald Ensley
DEMOCRAT STAFF WRITER

Drink up, you thirsty lawns and gardens. This much-needed break from the drought ends tonight.

But there's good news. A dry weekend will be a boon for Florida A&M University's outdoor graduation ceremony -- and may be only a lull before May's expected regular rain showers.

Until then, Tallahasseeans will have to be grateful for the rain that fell Tuesday and Wednesday, which is expected to resume today.

The showers were the first measurable rain to fall in Tallahassee since April 1, and may indicate a crack in the high pressure dome that has squatted over our area.

"It's not a signal that the drought is ended," said Ron Block, senior forecaster for the Tallahassee office of the National Weather Service. "But it's a clue that maybe, finally, it's weakening."

Officially, a total of only .42 inches of rain was recorded at the National Weather Service station at the airport on Tuesday and Wednesday combined. But as much as 1 1/4 inches of rain fell in some parts of Leon County.

It brought Tallahassee's official total for April rainfall to .78 inches, or about 3 inches below normal. For the year, Tallahassee has recorded 9.75 inches of rain, which is 10 inches below normal.

Though Wednesday's steady drizzle ended in late afternoon, Block said more rain is expected this afternoon with the arrival of a "back-door" (from the northeast) front. He said the mild front offers a 50-percent chance of rain from late afternoon to evening.

"It's not a major weather system but it should be a rejuvenation of the rain," Block said.

But by Friday morning, the rain should be gone and a clear weekend is forecast. Block said Saturday should be cool and breezy, with high temperatures in the 70s and a rain chance of only 20 percent. Sunday should be warmer, with high temperatures in the low 80s and even less chance of rain.

That's good news for FAMU, which will be holding its annual commencement exercises outdoors at Bragg Stadium at 9 a.m. Saturday. About 10,000 to 12,000 spectators are expected to watch 1,050 graduates receive their degrees. The ceremony has been moved outside because of remodeling of the Leon County Civic Center.

University spokesman Eddie Jackson said FAMU officials are prepared to bump back the time of the Saturday morning ceremony if rain arrives.

"But we don't anticipate we'll need to," Jackson said. "It is going to rain sunshine."

Real rain may be a frequent visitor again in the coming weeks.

Renowned Florida State University meteorology professor James O'Brien announced last week that his calculations, based on the La Nina ocean cooling phenomenon now in effect, show that Tallahassee will receive 20 percent above average rainfall in May.

Block noted that May traditionally signals the end of the winter dry season in Tallahassee, as sea breezes from the southwest bring moisture and warm temperatures that stimulate thunderstorms.

The past few months, he said, have been dryer than normal because a high-pressure system has remained in place over Tallahassee and rebuffed would-be rainstorms.

"We've seen a lot of convection and thunderstorms in the Panhandle that got shunted north of us," Block said. "But (this week's rain) is a sign the normal patterns are starting to kick in."

Gerald Ensley is a general assignments reporter. He can be reached at 599-2310 or by e-mail at gensley@taldem.com .