| Records |
| Author |
Engelman, M. B. |
| Title |
A Validation of the FSU/COAPS Climate Model |
Type |
$loc['typeManuscript'] |
| Year |
2008 |
Publication |
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Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
Crop Models, Skill Scores, Seasonal Prediction, Extreme Events |
| Abstract |
This study examines the predictability of the Florida State University/Center for Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU/COAPS) climate model, and is motivated by the model's potential use in crop modeling. The study also compares real-time ensemble runs (created using persisted SST anomalies) to hindcast ensemble runs (created using weekly updated SST) to asses the effect of SST anomalies on forecast error. Wintertime (DJF, 2 month lead time) surface temperature and precipitation forecasts over the southeastern United States (Georgia, Alabama, and Florida) are evaluated because of the documented links between tropical Pacific SST anomalies and climate in the southeastern United States during the winter season. The global spectral model (GSM) runs at a T63 resolution and then is dynamically downscaled to a 20 x 20 km grid over the southeastern United States using the FSU regional spectral model (RSM). Seasonal, monthly, and daily events from the October 2004 and 2005 model runs are assessed. Seasonal (DJF) plots of real-time forecasts indicate the model is capable of predicting wintertime maximum and minimum temperatures over the southeastern United States. The October 2004 and 2005 real-time model runs both produce temperature forecasts with anomaly errors below 3°C, correlations close to one, and standard deviations similar to observations. Real-time precipitation forecasts are inconsistent. Error in the percent of normal precipitation vary from greater than 100% in the 2004/2005 forecasts to less than 35% error in the 2005/2006 forecasts. Comparing hindcast runs to real-time runs reveals some skill is lost in precipitation forecasts when using a method of SST anomaly persistence if the SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific change early in the forecast period, as they did for the October 2004 model runs. Further analysis involving monthly and daily model data as well as Brier scores (BS), relative operating characteristics (ROC), and equitable threat scores (ETS), are also examined to confirm these results. |
| Address |
Department of Meteorology |
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Thesis |
$loc['Master's thesis'] |
| Publisher |
Florida State University |
Place of Publication |
Tallahassee, FL |
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Approved |
$loc['no'] |
| Call Number |
COAPS @ mfield @ |
Serial |
607 |
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| Author |
Bastola, S.; Misra, V. |
| Title |
Seasonal hydrological and nutrient loading forecasts for watersheds over the Southeastern United States |
Type |
$loc['typeJournal Article'] |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
| Volume |
73 |
Issue |
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Pages |
90-102 |
| Keywords |
Rainfall-runoff model; Seasonal hydrologic forecasting; Southeastern United States; Water quality; Seasonal predictability |
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| ISSN |
1364-8152 |
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$loc['no'] |
| Call Number |
COAPS @ mfield @ |
Serial |
95 |
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| Author |
Krishnamurti, T.N.; Jana, S.; Krishnamurti, R.; Kumar, V.; Deepa, R.; Papa, F.; Bourassa, M.A.; Ali, M.M. |
| Title |
Monsoonal intraseasonal oscillations in the ocean heat content over the surface layers of the Bay of Bengal |
Type |
$loc['typeJournal Article'] |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Journal of Marine Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Journal of Marine Systems |
| Volume |
167 |
Issue |
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Pages |
19-32 |
| Keywords |
Intraseasonal oscillations; Ocean heat content; Bay of Bengal |
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| ISSN |
0924-7963 |
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$loc['no'] |
| Call Number |
COAPS @ mfield @ |
Serial |
64 |
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| Author |
Misra, V.; Mishra, A.; Li, H. |
| Title |
The sensitivity of the regional coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations over the Intra-Americas seas to the prescribed bathymetry |
Type |
$loc['typeJournal Article'] |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans |
Abbreviated Journal |
Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans |
| Volume |
76 |
Issue |
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Pages |
29-51 |
| Keywords |
Coupled downscaling; Intra-Americas Seas; Warm pool; Loop Current; SST bias |
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| ISSN |
0377-0265 |
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$loc['no'] |
| Call Number |
COAPS @ mfield @ |
Serial |
43 |
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| Author |
Ramírez-Rodrigues, M.A.; Alderman, P.D.; Stefanova, L.; Cossani, C.M.; Flores, D.; Asseng, S. |
| Title |
The value of seasonal forecasts for irrigated, supplementary irrigated, and rainfed wheat cropping systems in northwest Mexico |
Type |
$loc['typeJournal Article'] |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Systems |
| Volume |
147 |
Issue |
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Pages |
76-86 |
| Keywords |
Arid environment; litigation; Supplementary irrigation; Wheat; Mexico; Seasonal forecast |
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| ISSN |
0308521X |
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$loc['no'] |
| Call Number |
COAPS @ mfield @ |
Serial |
49 |
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| Author |
Palacios-Hernández, E.; Carrillo, L.; Lavín, M.F.; Zamudio, L.; García-Sandoval, A. |
| Title |
Hydrography and circulation in the Northern Gulf of California during winter of 1994-1995 |
Type |
$loc['typeJournal Article'] |
| Year |
2006 |
Publication |
Continental Shelf Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Continental Shelf Research |
| Volume |
26 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
82-103 |
| Keywords |
seasonal circulation; gyres; coastally trapped waves; ENSO; Gulf of California |
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| ISSN |
0278-4343 |
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$loc['no'] |
| Call Number |
COAPS @ mfield @ |
Serial |
442 |
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| Author |
Hong, S.-Y.; Park, H.; Cheong, H.-B.; Kim, J.-E.E.; Koo, M.-S.; Jang, J.; Ham, S.; Hwang, S.-O.; Park, B.-K.; Chang, E.-C.; Li, H. |
| Title |
The Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) |
Type |
$loc['typeJournal Article'] |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci |
| Volume |
49 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
219-243 |
| Keywords |
Numerical weather prediction; seasonal prediction; general circulation model; regional climate modeling; physics; parameterization; climate modeling; GRIMs; WRF |
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| ISSN |
1976-7633 |
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$loc['no'] |
| Call Number |
COAPS @ mfield @ |
Serial |
215 |
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| Author |
Jia, Y.; Chassignet, E.P. |
| Title |
Seasonal variation of eddy shedding from the Kuroshio intrusion in the Luzon Strait |
Type |
$loc['typeJournal Article'] |
| Year |
2011 |
Publication |
Journal of Oceanography |
Abbreviated Journal |
J Oceanogr |
| Volume |
67 |
Issue |
5 |
Pages |
601-611 |
| Keywords |
Eddy shedding; Kuroshio intrusion; Luzon Strait; Seasonal variation |
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| ISSN |
0916-8370 |
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$loc['no'] |
| Call Number |
COAPS @ mfield @ |
Serial |
289 |
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| Author |
Li, H.; Misra, V. |
| Title |
Thirty-two-year ocean-atmosphere coupled downscaling of global reanalysis over the Intra-American Seas |
Type |
$loc['typeJournal Article'] |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Climate Dynamics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim Dyn |
| Volume |
43 |
Issue |
9-10 |
Pages |
2471-2489 |
| Keywords |
Coupled downscaling; Reanalysis; Intra-American Seas; Interannual variability |
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| ISSN |
0930-7575 |
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$loc['no'] |
| Call Number |
COAPS @ mfield @ |
Serial |
134 |
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| Author |
Misra, V.; Li, H. |
| Title |
The seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon in a two-tiered forecast system |
Type |
$loc['typeJournal Article'] |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Climate Dynamics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim Dyn |
| Volume |
42 |
Issue |
9-10 |
Pages |
2491-2507 |
| Keywords |
ENSO; Monsoon; Seasonal predictability |
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| ISSN |
0930-7575 |
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$loc['no'] |
| Call Number |
COAPS @ mfield @ |
Serial |
140 |
| Permanent link to this record |
