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Bhardwaj, A., & Misra, V. (2019). The role of air-sea coupling in the downscaled hydroclimate projection over Peninsular Florida and the West Florida Shelf. Clim Dyn, 53(5-6), 2931–2947.
Abstract: A comparative analysis of two sets of downscaled simulations of the current climate and the future climate projections over Peninsular Florida (PF) and the West Florida Shelf (WFS) is presented to isolate the role of high-resolution air-sea coupling. In addition, the downscaled integrations are also compared with the much coarser, driving global model projection to examine the impact of grid resolution of the models. The WFS region is habitat for significant marine resources, which has both commercial and recreational value. Additionally, the hydroclimatic features of the WFS and PF contrast each other. For example, the seasonal cycle of surface evaporation in these two regions are opposite in phase to one another. In this study, we downscale the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) simulations of the late twentieth century and the mid-twenty-first century (with reference concentration pathway 8.5 emission scenario) using an atmosphere only Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10 km grid resolution. In another set, we downscale the same set of CCSM4 simulations using the coupled RSM-Regional Ocean Model System (RSMROMS) at 10 km grid resolution. The comparison of the twentieth century simulations suggest significant changes to the SST simulation over WFS from RSMROMS relative to CCSM4, with the former reducing the systematic errors of the seasonal mean SST over all seasons except in the boreal summer season. It may be noted that owing to the coarse resolution of CCSM4, the comparatively shallow bathymetry of the WFS and the sharp coastline along PF is poorly defined, which is significantly rectified at 10 km grid spacing in RSMROMS. The seasonal hydroclimate over PF and the WFS in the twentieth century simulation show significant bias in all three models with CCSM4 showing the least for a majority of the seasons, except in the wet June-July-August (JJA) season. In the JJA season, the errors of the surface hydroclimate over PF is the least in RSMROMS. The systematic errors of surface precipitation and evaporation are more comparable between the simulations of CCSM4 and RSMROMS, while they differ the most in moisture flux convergence. However, there is considerable improvement in RSMROMS compared to RSM simulations in terms of the seasonal bias of the hydroclimate over WFS and PF in all seasons of the year. This suggests the potential rectification impact of air-sea coupling on dynamic downscaling of CCSM4 twentieth century simulations. In terms of the climate projection in the decades of 2041-2060, the RSMROMS simulation indicate significant drying of the wet season over PF compared to moderate drying in CCSM4 and insignificant changes in the RSM projection. This contrasting projection is also associated with projected warming of SSTs along the WFS in RSMROMS as opposed to warming patterns of SST that is more zonal and across the WFS in CCSM4.
Bhowmick, S. A., Agarwal, N., Ali, M. M., Kishtawal, C. M., & Sharma, R. (2019). Role of ocean heat content in boosting post-monsoon tropical storms over Bay of Bengal during La-Nina events. Climate Dynamics, 52(12), 7225–7234.
Abstract: This study aims to analyze the role of ocean heat content in boosting the post-monsoon cyclonic activities over Bay of Bengal during La-Niña events. In strong La-Niña years, accumulated cyclone energy in Bay of Bengal is much more as compared to any other year. It is observed that during late June to October of moderate to strong La-Nina years, western Pacific is warmer. Sea surface temperature anomaly of western Pacific Ocean clearly indicates the presence of relatively warmer water mass in the channel connecting the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean, situated above Australia. Ocean currents transport the heat zonally from Pacific to South eastern Indian Ocean. Excess heat of the southern Indian Ocean is eventually transported to eastern equatorial Indian Ocean through strong geostrophic component of ocean current. By September the northward transport of this excess heat from eastern equatorial Indian Ocean to Bay of Bengal takes place during La-Nina years boosting the cyclonic activities thereafter.
Keywords: La-Niña; Bay of Bengal; Tropical cyclones; Ocean heat content
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|Glazer, R. H., & Misra, V. (2018). Ice versus liquid water saturation in simulations of the Indian summer monsoon. Climate Dynamics, .|
Hu, X., Cai, M., Yang, S., & Wu, Z. (2018). Delineation of thermodynamic and dynamic responses to sea surface temperature forcing associated with El Niño. Clim Dyn, 51(11-12), 4329–4344.
Abstract: A new framework is proposed to gain a better understanding of the response of the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific to the radiative heating anomaly associated with the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in canonical El Niño winters. The new framework is based on the equilibrium balance between thermal radiative cooling anomalies associated with air temperature response to SST anomalies and other thermodynamic and dynamic processes. The air temperature anomalies in the lower troposphere are mainly in response to radiative heating anomalies associated with SST, atmospheric water vapor, and cloud anomalies that all exhibit similar spatial patterns. As a result, air temperature induced thermal radiative cooling anomalies would balance out most of the radiative heating anomalies in the lower troposphere. The remaining part of the radiative heating anomalies is then taken away by an enhancement (a reduction) of upward energy transport in the central-eastern (western) Pacific basin, a secondary contribution to the air temperature anomalies in the lower troposphere. Above the middle troposphere, radiative effect due to water vapor feedback is weak. Thermal radiative cooling anomalies are mainly in balance with the sum of latent heating anomalies, vertical and horizontal energy transport anomalies associated with atmospheric dynamic response and the radiative heating anomalies due to changes in cloud. The pattern of Gill-type response is attributed mainly to the non-radiative heating anomalies associated with convective and large-scale energy transport. The radiative heating anomalies associated with the anomalies of high clouds also contribute positively to the Gill-type response. This sheds some light on why the Gill-type atmospheric response can be easily identifiable in the upper atmosphere.
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|Kozar, M. E., & Misra, V. (2013). Evaluation of twentieth-century Atlantic Warm Pool simulations in historical CMIP5 runs. Clim Dyn, 41(9-10), 2375–2391.|
|Krishnamurthy, V., & Misra, V. (2011). Daily atmospheric variability in the South American monsoon system. Clim Dyn, 37(3-4), 803–819.|