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Author
Devanas, A. ; Stefanova, L.
Title
Statistical Prediction Of Waterspout Probability For The Florida Keys
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2018
Publication
Weather and Forecasting
Abbreviated Journal
Wea. Forecasting
Volume
33
Issue
Pages
389-410
Keywords
Regression analysis ; Forecast verification/skill ; Forecasting techniques ; Probability forecasts/models/distribution ; Statistical forecasting
Abstract
A statistical model of waterspout probability was developed for wet-season (June–September) days over the Florida Keys. An analysis was performed on over 200 separate variables derived from Key West 1200 UTC daily wet-season soundings during the period 2006–14. These variables were separated into two subsets: days on which a waterspout was reported anywhere in the Florida Keys coastal waters and days on which no waterspouts were reported. Days on which waterspouts were reported were determined from the National Weather Service (NWS) Key West local storm reports. The sounding at Key West was used for this analysis since it was assumed to be representative of the atmospheric environment over the area evaluated in this study. The probability of a waterspout report day was modeled using multiple logistic regression with selected predictors obtained from the sounding variables. The final model containing eight separate variables was validated using repeated fivefold cross validation, and its performance was compared to that of an existing waterspout index used as a benchmark. The performance of the model was further validated in forecast mode using an independent verification wet-season dataset from 2015–16 that was not used to define or train the model. The eight-predictor model was found to produce a probability forecast with robust skill relative to climatology and superior to the benchmark waterspout index in both the cross validation and in the independent verification.
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Series Title
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Series Volume
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Edition
ISSN
0882-8156
ISBN
Medium
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Conference
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Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
553
Permanent link to this record
Author
Kara, A.B.
Title
Mixed layer depth variability over the global ocean
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2003
Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research
Abbreviated Journal
J. Geophys. Res.
Volume
108
Issue
C3
Pages
Keywords
mixed layer ; isothermal layer ; seasonal cycle ; temperature ; salinity ; verification
Abstract
Address
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Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
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Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0148-0227
ISBN
Medium
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Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
482
Permanent link to this record
Author
Smedstad, O.M. ; Hurlburt, H.E. ; Metzger, E.J. ; Rhodes, R.C. ; Shriver, J.F. ; Wallcraft, A.J. ; Kara, A.B.
Title
An operational Eddy resolving 1/16° global ocean nowcast/forecast system
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2003
Publication
Journal of Marine Systems
Abbreviated Journal
Journal of Marine Systems
Volume
40-41
Issue
Pages
341-361
Keywords
global ocean prediction ; prediction of mesoscale variability ; data assimilation ; ocean forecast verification
Abstract
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Corporate Author
Thesis
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Summary Language
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Series Editor
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Edition
ISSN
0924-7963
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
481
Permanent link to this record