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Author
Boisserie, M
Title
Generation of an empirical soil moisture initialization and its potential impact on subseasonal forecasting skill of continental precipitation and air temperature
Type
$loc['typeManuscript']
Year
2010
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Abbreviated Journal
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Abstract
The effect of the PAR technique on the model soil moisture estimates is evaluated using the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 2 (GSWP-2) multimodel analysis product (used as a proxy for global soil moisture observations) and actual in-situ observations from the state of Illinois. The results show that overall the PAR technique is effective; across most of the globe, the seasonal and anomaly variability of the model soil moisture estimates well reproduce the values of GSWP-2 in the top 1.5 m soil layer; by comparing to in-situ observations in Illinois, we find that the seasonal and anomaly soil moisture variability is also well represented deep into the soil. Therefore, in this study, we produce a new global soil moisture analysis dataset that can be used for many land surface studies (crop modeling, water resource management, soil erosion, etc.). Then, the contribution of the resulting soil moisture analysis (used as initial conditions) on air temperature and precipitation forecasts are investigated. For this, we follow the experimental set up of a model intercomparison study over the time period 1986-1995, the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment second phase (GLACE-2), in which the FSU/COAPS climate model has participated. The results of the summertime air temperature forecasts show a significant increase in skill across most of the U.S. at short-term to subseasonal time scales. No increase in summertime precipitation forecasting skill is found at short-term to subseasonal time scales between 1986 and 1995, except for the anomalous drought year of 1988. We also analyze the forecasts of two extreme hydrological events, the 1988 U.S. Drought and the 1993 U.S. flood. In general, the comparison of these two extreme hydrological event forecasts shows greater improvement for the summertime of 1988 than that of 1993, suggesting that soil moisture contributes more to the development of a drought than a flood. This result is consistent with Dirmeyer and Brubaker [1999] and Weaver et al. [2009]. By analyzing the evaporative sources of these two extreme events using the back-trajectory methodology of Dirmeyer and Brubaker [1999], we find similar results as this latter paper; the soil moisture-precipitation feedback mechanism seems to play a greater role during the drought year of 1988 than the flood year of 1993. Finally, the accuracy of this soil moisture initialization depends upon the quality of the precipitation dataset that is assimilated. Because of the lack of observed precipitation at a high temporal resolution (3-hourly) for the study period (1986-1995), a reanalysis product is used for precipitation assimilation in this study. It is important to keep in mind that precipitation data in reanalysis sometimes differ significantly from observations since precipitation is often not assimilated into the reanalysis model. In order to investigate that aspect, a similar analysis to that we performed in this study could be done using the 3-hourly Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) dataset available for a the time period 1998-present. Then, since the TRMM dataset is a fully observational dataset, we expect the soil moisture initialization to be improved over that obtained in this study, which, in turn, may further increase the forecast skill.
Address
Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author
Thesis
$loc['Ph.D. thesis']
Publisher
Florida State University
Place of Publication
Tallahassee, FL, FL
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Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
569
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Author
Boisserie, M. ; LaRow, T. ; Cocke, S. D. ; Shin, D. W.
Title
Comparison of Soil Moisture in the FSU Climate Model Coupled to a Land Model CLM2 to Soil Moisture from NCEP/DOE Reanalysis 2
Type
$loc['typeReport']
Year
2005
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Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modeling, CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation
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Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
905
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Author
Boisserie, M. ; Shin, D.W. ; LaRow, T.E. ; Cocke, S.
Title
Evaluation of soil moisture in the Florida State University climate model-National Center for Atmospheric Research community land model (FSU-CLM) using two reanalyses (R2 and ERA40) and in situ observations
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2006
Publication
Journal of Geophysical Research
Abbreviated Journal
J. Geophys. Res.
Volume
111
Issue
D8
Pages
Keywords
land surface models ; soil moisture ; freezing process
Abstract
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Series Editor
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Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0148-0227
ISBN
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Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
709
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Author
Cocke, S. ; Boisserie, M. ; Shin, D.-W.
Title
A coupled soil moisture initialization scheme for the FSU/COAPS climate model
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2013
Publication
Inverse Problems in Science and Engineering
Abbreviated Journal
Inverse Problems in Science and Engineering
Volume
21
Issue
3
Pages
420-437
Keywords
soil moisture initialization ; data assimilation ; precipitation assimilation ; nudging ; reanalysis
Abstract
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Series Editor
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Edition
ISSN
1741-5977
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Medium
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Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
199
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Author
Koster, R.D. ; Mahanama, S.P.P. ; Yamada, T.J. ; Balsamo, G. ; Berg, A.A. ; Boisserie, M. ; Dirmeyer, P.A. ; Doblas-Reyes, F.J. ; Drewitt, G. ; Gordon, C.T. ; Guo, Z. ; Jeong, J.-H. ; Lawrence, D.M. ; Lee, W.-S. ; Li, Z. ; Luo, L. ; Malyshev, S. ; Merryfield, W.J. ; Seneviratne, S.I. ; Stanelle, T. ; van den Hurk, B.J.J.M. ; Vitart, F. ; Wood, E.F.
Title
Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2010
Publication
Geophysical Research Letters
Abbreviated Journal
Geophys. Res. Lett.
Volume
37
Issue
2
Pages
n/a-n/a
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Abstract
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Series Editor
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Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0094-8276
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
350
Permanent link to this record
Author
Koster, R.D. ; Mahanama, S.P.P. ; Yamada, T.J. ; Balsamo, G. ; Berg, A.A. ; Boisserie, M. ; Dirmeyer, P.A. ; Doblas-Reyes, F.J. ; Drewitt, G. ; Gordon, C.T. ; Guo, Z. ; Jeong, J.-H. ; Lee, W.-S. ; Li, Z. ; Luo, L. ; Malyshev, S. ; Merryfield, W.J. ; Seneviratne, S.I. ; Stanelle, T. ; van den Hurk, B.J.J.M. ; Vitart, F. ; Wood, E.F.
Title
The Second Phase of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment: Soil Moisture Contributions to Subseasonal Forecast Skill
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2011
Publication
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Abbreviated Journal
J. Hydrometeor
Volume
12
Issue
5
Pages
805-822
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Abstract
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Editor
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Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
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Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
1525-755X
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
288
Permanent link to this record