Records
Links
Author
Engelman, M. B.
Title
A Validation of the FSU/COAPS Climate Model
Type
$loc['typeManuscript']
Year
2008
Publication
Abbreviated Journal
Volume
Issue
Pages
Keywords
Crop Models, Skill Scores, Seasonal Prediction, Extreme Events
Abstract
This study examines the predictability of the Florida State University/Center for Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU/COAPS) climate model, and is motivated by the model's potential use in crop modeling. The study also compares real-time ensemble runs (created using persisted SST anomalies) to hindcast ensemble runs (created using weekly updated SST) to asses the effect of SST anomalies on forecast error. Wintertime (DJF, 2 month lead time) surface temperature and precipitation forecasts over the southeastern United States (Georgia, Alabama, and Florida) are evaluated because of the documented links between tropical Pacific SST anomalies and climate in the southeastern United States during the winter season. The global spectral model (GSM) runs at a T63 resolution and then is dynamically downscaled to a 20 x 20 km grid over the southeastern United States using the FSU regional spectral model (RSM). Seasonal, monthly, and daily events from the October 2004 and 2005 model runs are assessed. Seasonal (DJF) plots of real-time forecasts indicate the model is capable of predicting wintertime maximum and minimum temperatures over the southeastern United States. The October 2004 and 2005 real-time model runs both produce temperature forecasts with anomaly errors below 3°C, correlations close to one, and standard deviations similar to observations. Real-time precipitation forecasts are inconsistent. Error in the percent of normal precipitation vary from greater than 100% in the 2004/2005 forecasts to less than 35% error in the 2005/2006 forecasts. Comparing hindcast runs to real-time runs reveals some skill is lost in precipitation forecasts when using a method of SST anomaly persistence if the SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific change early in the forecast period, as they did for the October 2004 model runs. Further analysis involving monthly and daily model data as well as Brier scores (BS), relative operating characteristics (ROC), and equitable threat scores (ETS), are also examined to confirm these results.
Address
Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author
Thesis
$loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher
Florida State University
Place of Publication
Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
607
Permanent link to this record
Author
Magaldi, M.G. ; Özgökmen, T.M. ; Griffa, A. ; Chassignet, E.P. ; Iskandarani, M. ; Peters, H.
Title
Turbulent flow regimes behind a coastal cape in a stratified and rotating environment
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2008
Publication
Ocean Modelling
Abbreviated Journal
Ocean Modelling
Volume
25
Issue
1-2
Pages
65-82
Keywords
Cape ; Headland ; Eddy generation ; Modeling ; Form drag ; Mixing
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
1463-5003
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
417
Permanent link to this record
Author
Zamudio, L. ; Hogan, P.J.
Title
Nesting the Gulf of Mexico in Atlantic HYCOM: Oceanographic processes generated by Hurricane Ivan
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2008
Publication
Ocean Modelling
Abbreviated Journal
Ocean Modelling
Volume
21
Issue
3-4
Pages
106-125
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
1463-5003
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
418
Permanent link to this record
Author
Samuelsen, A. ; O'Brien, J.J.
Title
Wind-induced cross-shelf flux of water masses and organic matter at the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2008
Publication
Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers
Abbreviated Journal
Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers
Volume
55
Issue
3
Pages
221-246
Keywords
shelf dynamics ; physical-biological interactions ; Gulf of Tehuantepec ; marine ecology ; meso-scale eddies ; advection
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0967-0637
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
414
Permanent link to this record
Author
Wallcraft, A.J. ; Kara, A.B. ; Hurlburt, H.E. ; Chassignet, E.P. ; Halliwell, G.H.
Title
Value of bulk heat flux parameterizations for ocean SST prediction
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2008
Publication
Journal of Marine Systems
Abbreviated Journal
Journal of Marine Systems
Volume
74
Issue
1-2
Pages
241-258
Keywords
Bulk heat fluxes ; Ocean model SST ; Exchange coefficients ; Atmospheric forcing ; Climate
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0924-7963
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
405
Permanent link to this record
Author
Baigorria, G.A. ; Jones, J.W. ; O'Brien, J.J.
Title
Potential predictability of crop yield using an ensemble climate forecast by a regional circulation model
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2008
Publication
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Abbreviated Journal
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume
148
Issue
8-9
Pages
1353-1361
Keywords
crop yield forecast ; regional circulation models ; crop models ; bias-correction ; principal components ; statistical downscaling ; CERES-Maize
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0168-1923
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
407
Permanent link to this record
Author
Bellow, J.G. ; Hudson, R.F. ; Nair, P.K.R.
Title
Adoption potential of fruit-tree-based agroforestry on small farms in the subtropical highlands
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2008
Publication
Agroforestry Systems
Abbreviated Journal
Agroforest Syst
Volume
73
Issue
1
Pages
23-36
Keywords
Farming systems ; Guatemala ; Homegardens ; Linear programming ; Livelihoods ; Mixed cropping ; Orchard ; Pyrus
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0167-4366
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
711
Permanent link to this record
Author
Misra, V.
Title
Coupled Air, Sea, and Land Interactions of the South American Monsoon
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2008
Publication
Journal of Climate
Abbreviated Journal
J. Climate
Volume
21
Issue
23
Pages
6389-6403
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0894-8755
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
404
Permanent link to this record
Author
Perrie, W. ; Zhang, W. ; Bourassa, M. ; Shen, H. ; Vachon, P.W.
Title
Impact of Satellite Winds on Marine Wind Simulations
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2008
Publication
Weather and Forecasting
Abbreviated Journal
Wea. Forecasting
Volume
23
Issue
2
Pages
290-303
Keywords
Satellite observations ; Data assimilation ; Hurricanes ; Waves, oceanic ; Ocean modeling ; Numerical analysis
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0882-8156
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
NASA, OVWST
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
680
Permanent link to this record
Author
Arguez, A. ; Yu, P. ; O'Brien, J.J.
Title
A New Method for Time Series Filtering near Endpoints
Type
$loc['typeJournal Article']
Year
2008
Publication
Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology
Abbreviated Journal
J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol.
Volume
25
Issue
4
Pages
534-546
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author
Thesis
Publisher
Place of Publication
Editor
Language
Summary Language
Original Title
Series Editor
Series Title
Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume
Series Issue
Edition
ISSN
0739-0572
ISBN
Medium
Area
Expedition
Conference
Funding
Approved
$loc['no']
Call Number
COAPS @ mfield @
Serial
413
Permanent link to this record