Misra, V., & Bhardwaj, A. (2019). Understanding the seasonal variations of Peninsular Florida. Clim Dyn , 54 (3-4), 1873–1885.
Abstract: This study accounts for varying lengths of the seasons, which turns out to be an important consideration of climate variability over Peninsular Florida (PF). We introduce an objective definition for the onset and demise of the winter season over relatively homogenous regions within PF: North Florida (NF), Central Florida (CF), Southeast Florida (SeF), and Southwest Florida (SwF). We first define the summer season based on precipitation, and follow this by defining the winter season using surface temperature analysis. As a consequence, of these definitions of the summer and the winter seasons, the lengths of the transition seasons of spring and fall also vary from year to year. The onset date variations have a robust relationship with the corresponding seasonal length anomalies across PF for all seasons. Furthermore, with some exceptions, the onset date variations are associated with corresponding seasonal rainfall and surface temperature anomalies, which makes monitoring the onset date of the seasons a potentially useful predictor of the following evolution of the season. In many of these instances the demise date variations of the season also have a bearing on the preceding seasonal length and seasonal rainfall anomalies. However, we find that variations of the onset and the demise dates are independent of each other across PF and in all seasons. We also find that the iconic ENSO teleconnection over PF is exclusive to the seasonal rainfall anomalies and it does not affect the variations in the length of the winter season. Given these findings, we strongly suggest monitoring and predicting the variations in the lengths of the seasons over PF as it is not only an important metric of climate variability but also beneficial to reduce a variety of risks of impact of anomalous seasonal climate variations.
Sun, J., & Wu, Z. (2019). Isolating spatiotemporally local mixed Rossby-gravity waves using multi-dimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition. Clim Dyn , (3-4), 1383–1405.
Abstract: Tropical waves have relatively large amplitudes in and near convective systems, attenuating as they propagate away from the area where they are generated due to the dissipative nature of the atmosphere. Traditionally, nonlocal analysis methods, such as those based on the Fourier transform, are applied to identify tropical waves. However, these methods have the potential to lead to the misidentification of local wavenumbers and spatial locations of local wave activities. To address this problem, we propose a new method for analyzing tropical waves, with particular focus placed on equatorial mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG) waves. The new tropical wave analysis method is based on the multi-dimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition and a novel spectral representation based on spatiotemporally local wavenumber, frequency, and amplitude of waves. We first apply this new method to synthetic data to demonstrate the advantages of the method in revealing characteristics of MRG waves. We further apply the method to reanalysis data (1) to identify and isolate the spatiotemporally heterogeneous MRG waves event by event, and (2) to quantify the spatial inhomogeneity of these waves in a wavenumber-frequency-energy diagram. In this way, we reveal the climatology of spatiotemporal inhomogeneity of MRG waves and summarize it in wavenumber-frequency domain: The Indian Ocean is dominated by MRG waves in the period range of 8–12 days; the western Pacific Ocean consists of almost equal energy distribution of MRG waves in the period ranges of 3–6 and 8–12 days, respectively; and the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the tropical Atlantic Ocean are dominated by MRG waves in the period range of 3–6 days. The zonal wavenumbers mostly fall within the band of 4–15, with Indian Ocean has larger portion of higher wavenumber (smaller wavelength components) MRG waves.
Bhardwaj, A., & Misra, V. (2019). The role of air-sea coupling in the downscaled hydroclimate projection over Peninsular Florida and the West Florida Shelf. Clim Dyn , 53 (5-6), 2931–2947.
Abstract: A comparative analysis of two sets of downscaled simulations of the current climate and the future climate projections over Peninsular Florida (PF) and the West Florida Shelf (WFS) is presented to isolate the role of high-resolution air-sea coupling. In addition, the downscaled integrations are also compared with the much coarser, driving global model projection to examine the impact of grid resolution of the models. The WFS region is habitat for significant marine resources, which has both commercial and recreational value. Additionally, the hydroclimatic features of the WFS and PF contrast each other. For example, the seasonal cycle of surface evaporation in these two regions are opposite in phase to one another. In this study, we downscale the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) simulations of the late twentieth century and the mid-twenty-first century (with reference concentration pathway 8.5 emission scenario) using an atmosphere only Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10 km grid resolution. In another set, we downscale the same set of CCSM4 simulations using the coupled RSM-Regional Ocean Model System (RSMROMS) at 10 km grid resolution. The comparison of the twentieth century simulations suggest significant changes to the SST simulation over WFS from RSMROMS relative to CCSM4, with the former reducing the systematic errors of the seasonal mean SST over all seasons except in the boreal summer season. It may be noted that owing to the coarse resolution of CCSM4, the comparatively shallow bathymetry of the WFS and the sharp coastline along PF is poorly defined, which is significantly rectified at 10 km grid spacing in RSMROMS. The seasonal hydroclimate over PF and the WFS in the twentieth century simulation show significant bias in all three models with CCSM4 showing the least for a majority of the seasons, except in the wet June-July-August (JJA) season. In the JJA season, the errors of the surface hydroclimate over PF is the least in RSMROMS. The systematic errors of surface precipitation and evaporation are more comparable between the simulations of CCSM4 and RSMROMS, while they differ the most in moisture flux convergence. However, there is considerable improvement in RSMROMS compared to RSM simulations in terms of the seasonal bias of the hydroclimate over WFS and PF in all seasons of the year. This suggests the potential rectification impact of air-sea coupling on dynamic downscaling of CCSM4 twentieth century simulations. In terms of the climate projection in the decades of 2041-2060, the RSMROMS simulation indicate significant drying of the wet season over PF compared to moderate drying in CCSM4 and insignificant changes in the RSM projection. This contrasting projection is also associated with projected warming of SSTs along the WFS in RSMROMS as opposed to warming patterns of SST that is more zonal and across the WFS in CCSM4.
Ahern, K., Bourassa, M. A., Hart, R. E., Zhang, J. A., & Rogers, R. F. (2019). Observed Kinematic and Thermodynamic Structure in the Hurricane Boundary Layer During Intensity Change. Mon. Wea. Rev. , .
Abstract: The axisymmetric structure of the inner-core hurricane boundary layer (BL) during intensification [IN; intensity tendency ≥ 20 kt (24 h)−1], weakening [WE; intensity tendency < −10 kt (24 h)−1], and steady-state [SS; the remainder] periods are analyzed using composites of GPS dropwindsondes from reconnaissance missions between 1998 and 2015. A total of 3,091 dropsondes were composited for analysis below 2.5 km elevation—1,086 during IN, 1,042 during WE, and 963 during SS. In non-intensifying hurricanes, the lowlevel tangential wind is greater outside the radius of maximum wind (RMW) than for intensifying hurricanes, implying higher inertial stability (I) at those radii for non-intensifying hurricanes. Differences in tangential wind structure (and I) between the groups also imply differences in secondary circulation. The IN radial inflow layer is of nearly equal or greater thickness than nonintensifying groups, and all groups show an inflow maximum just outside the RMW. Non-intensifying hurricanes have stronger inflow outside the eyewall region, likely associated with frictionally forced ascent out of the BL and enhanced subsidence into the BL at radii outside the RMW. Equivalent potential temperatures (θe) and conditional stability are highest inside the RMW of non-intensifying storms, which is potentially related to TC intensity. At greater radii, inflow layer θe is lowest in WE hurricanes, suggesting greater subsidence or more convective downdrafts at those radii compared to IN and SS hurricanes. Comparisons of prior observational and theoretical studies are highlighted, especially those relating BL structure to large-scale vortex structure, convection, and intensity.
Misra, V., & Bhardwaj, A. (2019). Defining the Northeast Monsoon of India. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 147 (3), 791–807.
Abstract: This study introduces an objective definition for onset and demise of the Northeast Indian Monsoon (NEM). The definition is based on the land surface temperature analysis over the Indian subcontinent. It is diagnosed from the inflection points in the daily anomaly cumulative curve of the area-averaged surface temperature over the provinces of Andhra Pradesh, Rayalseema, and Tamil Nadu located in the southeastern part of India. Per this definition, the climatological onset and demise dates of the NEM season are 6 November and 13 March, respectively. The composite evolution of the seasonal cycle of 850hPa winds, surface wind stress, surface ocean currents, and upper ocean heat content suggest a seasonal shift around the time of the diagnosed onset and demise dates of the NEM season. The interannual variations indicate onset date variations have a larger impact than demise date variations on the seasonal length, seasonal anomalies of rainfall, and surface temperature of the NEM. Furthermore, it is shown that warm El Niño�Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes are associated with excess seasonal rainfall, warm seasonal land surface temperature anomalies, and reduced lengths of the NEM season. Likewise, cold ENSO episodes are likely to be related to seasonal deficit rainfall anomalies, cold land surface temperature anomalies, and increased lengths of the NEM season.
Ansong, J. K., Arbic, B. K., Simmons, H. L., Alford, M. H., Buijsman, M. C., Timko, P. G., et al. (2018). Geographical Distribution of Diurnal and Semidiurnal Parametric Subharmonic Instability in a Global Ocean Circulation Model. J. Phys. Oceanogr. , 48 (6), 1409–1431.
Abstract: The evidence for, baroclinic energetics of, and geographic distribution of parametric subharmonic instability (PSI) arising from both diurnal and semidiurnal tides in a global ocean general circulation model is investigated using 1/12.5° and 1/25° simulations that are forced by both atmospheric analysis fields and the astronomical tidal potential. The paper examines whether PSI occurs in the model, and whether it accounts for a significant fraction of the tidal baroclinic energy loss. Using energy transfer calculations and bispectral analyses, evidence is found for PSI around the critical latitudes of the tides. The intensity of both diurnal and semidiurnal PSI in the simulations is greatest in the upper ocean, consistent with previous results from idealized simulations, and quickly drops off about 5° from the critical latitudes. The sign of energy transfer depends on location; the transfer is positive (from the tides to subharmonic waves) in some locations and negative in others. The net globally integrated energy transfer is positive in all simulations and is 0.5%�10% of the amount of energy required to close the baroclinic energy budget in the model. The net amount of energy transfer is about an order of magnitude larger in the 1/25° semidiurnal simulation than the 1/12.5° one, implying the dependence of the rate of energy transfer on model resolution.
Liu, Y., Tan, Z. - M., & Wu, Z. (2019). Noninstantaneous Wave-CISK for the Interaction between Convective Heating and Low-Level Moisture Convergence in the Tropics. J. Atmos. Sci. , 76 (7), 2083–2101.
Abstract: The interaction between tropical convective heating and thermally forced circulation is investigated using a global dry primitive-equation model with the parameterization of wave-conditional instability of the second kind (CISK). It is demonstrated that deep convective heating can hardly sustain itself through the moisture convergence at low levels regardless of the fraction of immediate consumption of converged moisture. In contrast, when the fraction is large, shallow convective heating and its forced circulation exhibit preferred growth of small scales. As the “CISK catastrophe” mainly comes from the instantaneous characters of moisture-convection feedback in the conventional wave-CISK, a noninstantaneous wave-CISK is proposed, which highlights the accumulation-consumption (AC) time scale for the convective heating accumulation and/or the converged moisture consumption. In the new wave-CISK, once moisture is converged, the release of latent heat takes place gradually within an AC time scale. In this sense, convective heating is not only related to the instantaneous moisture convergence at the current time, but also to that which occurred in the past period of the AC time scale. The noninstantaneous wave-CISK could guarantee the occurrence of convective heating and/or moisture convergence at larger scales, and then favor the growth of long waves, and thus solve the problem of CISK catastrophe. With the new wave-CISK and AC time scale of 2 days, the simulated convective heating-driven system bears a large similarity to that of the observed convectively coupled Kelvin wave.
Maloney, E. D., Gettelman, A., Ming, Y., Neelin, J. D., Barrie, D., Mariotti, A., et al. (2019). Process-Oriented Evaluation of Climate and Weather Forecasting Models. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 100 (9), 1665–1686.
Abstract: Realistic climate and weather prediction models are necessary to produce confidence in projections of future climate over many decades and predictions for days to seasons. These models must be physically justified and validated for multiple weather and climate processes. A key opportunity to accelerate model improvement is greater incorporation of process-oriented diagnostics (PODs) into standard packages that can be applied during the model development process, allowing the application of diagnostics to be repeatable across multiple model versions and used as a benchmark for model improvement. A POD characterizes a specific physical process or emergent behavior that is related to the ability to simulate an observed phenomenon. This paper describes the outcomes of activities by the Model Diagnostics Task Force (MDTF) under the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program to promote development of PODs and their application to climate and weather prediction models. MDTF and modeling center perspectives on the need for expanded process-oriented diagnosis of models are presented. Multiple PODs developed by the MDTF are summarized, and an open-source software framework developed by the MDTF to aid application of PODs to centers' model development is presented in the context of other relevant community activities. The paper closes by discussing paths forward for the MDTF effort and for community process-oriented diagnosis.
Yu, B., Seed, A., Pu, L., & Malone, T. (2019). Integration of weather radar data into a raster GIS framework for improved flood estimation. Atmos. Sci. Lett. , 6 (1).
Abstract: We present in this paper the interannual variability of seasonal temperature and rainfall in the Indian meteorological subdivisions (IMS) for boreal winter and summer seasons that take in to account the varying length of the seasons.Our study reveals that accounting for the variations in the length of the sea-sons produces stronger teleconnections between the seasonal anomalies of surface temperature and rainfall over India with corresponding sea surface temperature anomalies of the tropical Oceans (especially over the northern Indian and the equatorial Pacific Oceans) compared to the same teleconnections from fixed length seasons over the IMS. It should be noted that the IMS show significant spatial heterogeneity in these teleconnections
Neto, A. G., Palter, J., Bower, A., Furey, H., & Xu. X. (2020). Labrador Sea Water transport across the Charlie-Gibbs Fracture Zone. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans , Accepted .
Abstract: Labrador Sea Water (LSW) is a major component of the deep limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, yet LSW transport pathways and their variability lack a complete description. A portion of the LSW exported from the subpolar gyre is advected eastward along the North Atlantic Current and must contend with the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge before reaching the eastern basins of the North Atlantic. Here, we analyze observations from a mooring array and satellite altimetry, together with outputs from a hindcast ocean model simulation, to estimate the mean transport of LSW across the Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone (CGFZ), a primary gateway for the eastward transport of the water mass. The LSW transport estimated from the 25‐year altimetry record is 5.3 ± 2.9 Sv, where the error represents the combination of observational variability and the uncertainty in the projection of the surface velocities to the LSW layer. Current velocities modulate the interannual to higher frequency variability of the LSW transport at the CGFZ, while the LSW thickness becomes important on longer time scales. The modeled mean LSW transport for 1993‐2012 is higher than the estimate from altimetry, at 8.2 ± 4.1 Sv. The modeled LSW thickness decreases substantially at the CGFZ between 1996 and 2009, consistent with an observed decline in LSW volume in the Labrador Sea after 1994. We suggest that satellite altimetry and continuous hydrographic measurements in the central Labrador Sea, supplemented by profiles from Argo floats, could be sufficient to quantify the LSW transport at the CGFZ.
