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Author AjayaMohan, R. S.; Jagtap, S.; LaRow, T. E.; Cocke, S.; O'Brien, J. J.; Jones, J.; Shin, D. W. openurl 
  Title Using climate models to generate crop yield forecasts in southeast USA Type $loc['typeConference Article']
  Year 2004 Publication Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modeling, CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation Abbreviated Journal  
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  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 881  
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Author Arguez, A.; O'Brien, J. J.; Smith, S. R. openurl 
  Title The Relationship Between Low-Frequency North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Surface Temperatures over Eastern North America and Europe Type $loc['typeConference Article']
  Year 2004 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
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  Series Editor Series Title The CRCES-IRPC Workshop on Decadal Variability, NASA, NSF, and NOAA, Waikoloa, Hawaii, USA Abbreviated Series Title  
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  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 892  
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Author Arruda, W.Z.; Nof, D.; O'Brien, J.J. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Does the Ulleung eddy owe its existence to beta and nonlinearities? Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
  Year 2004 Publication Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers Abbreviated Journal Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers  
  Volume 51 Issue 12 Pages 2073-2090  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0967-0637 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 454  
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Author Banks, R. F. url  openurl
  Title Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation runs across the Southeast U.S. Type $loc['typeManuscript']
  Year 2004 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
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  Address Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies  
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  Publisher Florida State University Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL Editor  
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  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 583  
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Author Bourassa, M. A. openurl 
  Title A Sea Surface Stress Parameterization Dependent on Directional Seastate Type $loc['typeConference Article']
  Year 2004 Publication CAS/JSC Working Group on Numerical Experimentation, Research Activities in Atmospheric and Oceanic Modeling Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages 4.07-4.08  
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  Publisher World Meteorological Organization Place of Publication Geneva, Switzerland Editor  
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  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding FYAP, NASA, OSU, ONR, NSF, OVWST Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 884  
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Author Bourassa, M.A. url  doi
openurl 
  Title An improved sea state dependency for surface stress derived from in situ and remotely sensed winds Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
  Year 2004 Publication Advances in Space Research Abbreviated Journal Advances in Space Research  
  Volume 33 Issue 7 Pages 1136-1142  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0273-1177 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding NASA, NOAA, NSF, FYAP, ONR, OVWST Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 463  
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Author Brolley, J. M. url  openurl
  Title Experimental Forest Fire Threat Forecast Type $loc['typeManuscript']
  Year 2004 Publication Abbreviated Journal  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords Forest Fire, El Nino, ENSO, Seasonal Forecast, KBDI, Keetch-Byram Drought Index, Bootstrapping  
  Abstract Climate shifts due to El Niño (warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and La Niña (cooler than normal) are well known and used to predict seasonal temperature and precipitation trends up to a year in advance. These climate shifts are particularly strong in the Southeastern United States. During the winter and spring months, El Niño brings plentiful rainfall and cooler temperatures to Florida. Recent los Niños occurred in 1997-1998, one of the strongest on record, with another mild El Niño in 2002-2003. Conversely, La Niña is associated with warm and dry winter and spring seasons in Florida. Temperature and precipitation affect wildfire activity; interannual drivers of climate, like ENSO, have an influence on wildfire activity. Studies have shown a strong connection between wildfires in Florida and La Niña, with the more than double the average number of acres burned (O'Brien et al 2002; Jones et al. 1999). While this relationship is important and lends a degree of predictability to the relative activity of future wildfire seasons, human activities such as effective suppression, prescribed burns, and ignition can play an equally important role in wildfire risks. This study forecasts wildfire potential rather than actual burn statistics to avoid complications due to human interactions. This wildfire threat potential is based upon the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). The KBDI is well suited as a seasonal forecast medium. It is based on daily temperature and rainfall measurements and responds to changing climate and weather conditions on time scales of days to months, and this index is high during dry warm weather patterns and low during wet cool patterns. The KBDI has been widely used in forestry in the Southeastern United States since its development in the 1970's, with foresters and firefighters have a good level of familiarity with the index and its applications. The KBDI is calculated daily and used as an index by wildfire managers. This study calculates wildfire potential using a statistical method known as bootstrapping. Many datasets contain approximately a half-century of data, and the limited dataset will introduce biases. Bootstrapping can remedy bias by simulating thousands of years of data, which retain the climatology for the past half-century. Bootstrapping preserves the mean but not the variance. By incorporating this method, this study will improve long-term forest fire risks that will become useful for those living or working near forests and assist in managing forests and wildfires. The Southeast Climate Consortium will also be issuing wildfire risk forecast for Florida and parts of Alabama and Georgia based on ENSO phase and the KBDI. Climate information and ENSO predictions are better served by incorporating them with known climate indices that are routinely used in the forestry sector. Wildfire managers and foresters operationally use the KBDI to monitor and predict wildfire activity (O'Brien et al. 2002). Meteorologists at the Florida Division of Forestry have demonstrated the validity of the KBDI as an indicator of potential wildfire activity in Florida (Long 2004). They showed that the value of the KBDI is not as important as the deviation from the monthly average. The wildfire risk forecast is based on the probabilities of KBDI anomalies and will present the probabilities associated with large deviations from the seasonal normal.  
  Address Department of Meteorology  
  Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']  
  Publisher Florida State University Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL Editor  
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  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 622  
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Author Curry, J.A.; Bentamy, A.; Bourassa, M.A.; Bourras, D.; Bradley, E.F.; Brunke, M.; Castro, S.; Chou, S.H.; Clayson, C.A.; Emery, W.J.; Eymard, L.; Fairall, C.W.; Kubota, M.; Lin, B.; Perrie, W.; Reeder, R.A.; Renfrew, I.A.; Rossow, W.B.; Schulz, J.; Smith, S.R.; Webster, P.J.; Wick, G.A.; Zeng, X. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Seaflux Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
  Year 2004 Publication Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Abbreviated Journal Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.  
  Volume 85 Issue 3 Pages 409-424  
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  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0003-0007 ISBN Medium  
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  Funding Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 459  
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Author Dukhovskoy, D.S. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Arctic decadal variability: An auto-oscillatory system of heat and fresh water exchange Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
  Year 2004 Publication Geophysical Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Geophys. Res. Lett.  
  Volume 31 Issue 3 Pages  
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  ISSN 0094-8276 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding NSF Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 461  
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Author Enloe, J.; O'Brien, J.J.; Smith, S.R. url  doi
openurl 
  Title ENSO Impacts on Peak Wind Gusts in the United States Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
  Year 2004 Publication Journal of Climate Abbreviated Journal J. Climate  
  Volume 17 Issue 8 Pages 1728-1737  
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  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0894-8755 ISBN Medium  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Funding NOAA Approved $loc['no']  
  Call Number COAPS @ mfield @ Serial 458  
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