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Author Engelman, M. B.
Title A Validation of the FSU/COAPS Climate Model Type $loc['typeManuscript']
Year 2008 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Crop Models, Skill Scores, Seasonal Prediction, Extreme Events
Abstract This study examines the predictability of the Florida State University/Center for Oceanic and Atmospheric Prediction Studies (FSU/COAPS) climate model, and is motivated by the model's potential use in crop modeling. The study also compares real-time ensemble runs (created using persisted SST anomalies) to hindcast ensemble runs (created using weekly updated SST) to asses the effect of SST anomalies on forecast error. Wintertime (DJF, 2 month lead time) surface temperature and precipitation forecasts over the southeastern United States (Georgia, Alabama, and Florida) are evaluated because of the documented links between tropical Pacific SST anomalies and climate in the southeastern United States during the winter season. The global spectral model (GSM) runs at a T63 resolution and then is dynamically downscaled to a 20 x 20 km grid over the southeastern United States using the FSU regional spectral model (RSM). Seasonal, monthly, and daily events from the October 2004 and 2005 model runs are assessed. Seasonal (DJF) plots of real-time forecasts indicate the model is capable of predicting wintertime maximum and minimum temperatures over the southeastern United States. The October 2004 and 2005 real-time model runs both produce temperature forecasts with anomaly errors below 3°C, correlations close to one, and standard deviations similar to observations. Real-time precipitation forecasts are inconsistent. Error in the percent of normal precipitation vary from greater than 100% in the 2004/2005 forecasts to less than 35% error in the 2005/2006 forecasts. Comparing hindcast runs to real-time runs reveals some skill is lost in precipitation forecasts when using a method of SST anomaly persistence if the SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific change early in the forecast period, as they did for the October 2004 model runs. Further analysis involving monthly and daily model data as well as Brier scores (BS), relative operating characteristics (ROC), and equitable threat scores (ETS), are also examined to confirm these results.
Address Department of Meteorology
Corporate Author Thesis $loc['Master's thesis']
Publisher Florida State University
Place of Publication Tallahassee, FL
Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 607
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Author Magaldi, M.G. ; Özgökmen, T.M. ; Griffa, A. ; Chassignet, E.P. ; Iskandarani, M. ; Peters, H.
Title Turbulent flow regimes behind a coastal cape in a stratified and rotating environment Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2008 Publication Ocean Modelling Abbreviated Journal Ocean Modelling
Volume 25
Issue 1-2
Pages 65-82
Keywords Cape ; Headland ; Eddy generation ; Modeling ; Form drag ; Mixing
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1463-5003
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 417
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Author Zamudio, L. ; Hogan, P.J.
Title Nesting the Gulf of Mexico in Atlantic HYCOM: Oceanographic processes generated by Hurricane Ivan Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2008 Publication Ocean Modelling Abbreviated Journal Ocean Modelling
Volume 21
Issue 3-4
Pages 106-125
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1463-5003
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 418
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Author Samuelsen, A. ; O'Brien, J.J.
Title Wind-induced cross-shelf flux of water masses and organic matter at the Gulf of Tehuantepec Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2008 Publication Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers Abbreviated Journal Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers
Volume 55
Issue 3
Pages 221-246
Keywords shelf dynamics ; physical-biological interactions ; Gulf of Tehuantepec ; marine ecology ; meso-scale eddies ; advection
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0967-0637
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 414
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Author Wallcraft, A.J. ; Kara, A.B. ; Hurlburt, H.E. ; Chassignet, E.P. ; Halliwell, G.H.
Title Value of bulk heat flux parameterizations for ocean SST prediction Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2008 Publication Journal of Marine Systems Abbreviated Journal Journal of Marine Systems
Volume 74
Issue 1-2
Pages 241-258
Keywords Bulk heat fluxes ; Ocean model SST ; Exchange coefficients ; Atmospheric forcing ; Climate
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0924-7963
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 405
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Author Baigorria, G.A. ; Jones, J.W. ; O'Brien, J.J.
Title Potential predictability of crop yield using an ensemble climate forecast by a regional circulation model Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2008 Publication Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Abbreviated Journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume 148
Issue 8-9
Pages 1353-1361
Keywords crop yield forecast ; regional circulation models ; crop models ; bias-correction ; principal components ; statistical downscaling ; CERES-Maize
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0168-1923
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 407
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Author Bellow, J.G. ; Hudson, R.F. ; Nair, P.K.R.
Title Adoption potential of fruit-tree-based agroforestry on small farms in the subtropical highlands Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2008 Publication Agroforestry Systems Abbreviated Journal Agroforest Syst
Volume 73
Issue 1
Pages 23-36
Keywords Farming systems ; Guatemala ; Homegardens ; Linear programming ; Livelihoods ; Mixed cropping ; Orchard ; Pyrus
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0167-4366
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 711
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Author Misra, V.
Title Coupled Air, Sea, and Land Interactions of the South American Monsoon Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2008 Publication Journal of Climate Abbreviated Journal J. Climate
Volume 21
Issue 23
Pages 6389-6403
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0894-8755
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 404
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Author Perrie, W. ; Zhang, W. ; Bourassa, M. ; Shen, H. ; Vachon, P.W.
Title Impact of Satellite Winds on Marine Wind Simulations Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2008 Publication Weather and Forecasting Abbreviated Journal Wea. Forecasting
Volume 23
Issue 2
Pages 290-303
Keywords Satellite observations ; Data assimilation ; Hurricanes ; Waves, oceanic ; Ocean modeling ; Numerical analysis
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0882-8156
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding NASA, OVWST
Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 680
Permanent link to this record
Author Arguez, A. ; Yu, P. ; O'Brien, J.J.
Title A New Method for Time Series Filtering near Endpoints Type $loc['typeJournal Article']
Year 2008 Publication Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology Abbreviated Journal J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol.
Volume 25
Issue 4
Pages 534-546
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0739-0572
ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Funding Approved $loc['no']
Call Number COAPS @ mfield @
Serial 413
Permanent link to this record
