Winterbottom, H. (2010). The Development of a High-Resolution Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model and Applications Toward Understanding the Limiting Factors for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction . Ph.D. thesis, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL.
Abstract: The prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) motion has improved greatly in recent decades. However, similar trends remain absent with respect to TC intensity prediction. Several hypotheses have been proposed attempting to explain why dynamical NWP models struggle to predict TC intensity. The leading candidates are as follows: (1) the lack of an evolving ocean (i.e., sea-surface temperature) boundary condition which responds as a function of the atmosphere (e.g., TC) forcing, (2) inappropriate initial conditions for the TC vortex (e.g., lack of data assimilation methods), (3) NWP model grid-length resolutions which are unable to resolve the temporal and length scale for the features believed responsible for TC vortex intensity. modulations (i.e., eye-wall dynamics, momentum transport, vortex Rossby wave interactions, etc.), and (4) physical parametrization which do not adequately represent the air-sea interactions observed during TC passage. In this study, a coupling algorithm for two independent, high-resolution, and state-of-the-art atmosphere and ocean models is developed. The atmosphere model -- the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model is coupled to the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) using a (UNIX) platform independent and innovative coupling methodology. Further, within the WRF-ARW framework, a dynamic initialization algorithm is developed to specify the TC vortex initial condition while preserving the synoptic-scale environment. Each of the tools developed in this study is implemented for a selected case-study: TC Bertha (2008) and TC Gustav (2008) for the coupled-model and TC vortex initialization, respectively. The experiment results suggest that the successful prediction (with respect to the observations) for both the ocean response and the TC intensity cannot be achieved by simply incorporating (i.e., coupling) an ocean model and/or by improving the initial structure for the TC. Rather the physical parametrization governing the air-sea interactions is suggested as the one of the weaknesses for the NWP model. This hypothesis is (indirectly) supported through a diagnostic evaluation of the synoptic-scale features (e.g., sea-level pressure and the deep-layer mean wind beyond the influence of the TC) while the assimilated TC vortex is nudged toward the observed intensity value. It is found -- in the case of TC Gustav (2008) using WRF-ARW, that as the assimilated TC vortex intensity approaches that of the observed, the balance between the mass and momentum states for WRF-ARW is compromised leading to unrealistic features for the environmental sea-level pressure and deep-layer (800- to 200-hPa) mean wind surrounding the TC. Forcing WRF-ARW to assimilate a TC vortex of the observed maximum wind-speed intensity may ultimately compromise the prediction for the TC's motion and subsequently mitigate any gains for the corresponding intensity prediction.Suggestions for additions to the coupled atmosphere-ocean model include a wave-model (WAVEWATCH3), the assimilation of troposphere thermodynamic observations, and modifications to the existing atmospheric boundary-layer parametrization. The current suite of atmosphere model parametrizations do not accurately simulate the observed azimuthal and radial variations for the exchange coefficients (e.g., drag and enthalpy) that have been indicated as potentialpredictor variables for TC intensity modulation. However, these modifications should be implemented only after the limitations for the current coupled-model and TC vortex initialization methods are fully evaluated.
DiNapoli, S. (2010). Determining the Error Characteristics of H*WIND . Master's thesis, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL.
Abstract: The HRD Real-time Hurricane Wind Analysis System (H*Wind) is a software application used by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division to create a gridded tropical cyclone wind analysis based on a wide range of observations. One application of H*Wind fields is calibration of scatterometers for high wind speed environments. Unfortunately, the accuracy of the H*Wind product has not been studied extensively, and therefore the accuracy of scatterometer calibrations in these environments is also unknown. This investigation seeks to determine the uncertainty in the H*Wind product and estimate the contributions of several potential error sources. These error sources include random observation errors, relative bias between different data types, temporal drift resulting from combining non-simultaneous measurements, and smoothing and interpolation errors in the H*Wind software. The effects of relative bias between different data types and random observation errors are determined by performing statistical calculations on the observed wind speeds. We show that in the absence of large biases, the total contribution of all error sources results in an uncertainty of approximately 7% near the storm center, which increases to nearly 15% near the tropical storm force wind radius. The H*Wind analysis algorithm is found to introduce a positive bias to the wind speeds near the storm center, where the analyzed wind speeds are enhanced to match the highest observations. In addition, spectral analyses are performed to ensure that the filter wavelength of the final analysis product matches user specifications. With increased knowledge of these error sources and their effects, researchers will have a better understanding of the uncertainty in the H*Wind product, and can then judge the suitability of H*Wind for various research applications
Morey, S. L., Bourassa, M. A., Dukhovskoy, D. S., & O'Brien, J. J. (2006). Modeling studies of the upper ocean response to a tropical cyclone. Ocean Dynamics , 56 (5-6), 594–606.
LaRow, T. (2013). An analysis of tropical cyclones impacting the Southeast United States from a regional reanalysis. Reg Environ Change , 13 (S1), 35–43.
Peng, M. S., Maue, R. N., Reynolds, C. A., & Langland, R. H. (2007). Hurricanes Ivan, Jeanne, Karl (2004) and mid-latitude trough interactions. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. , 97 (1-4), 221–237.
Subrahmanyam, B., Murty, V. S. N., Sharp, R. J., & O'Brien, J. J. (2005). Air-sea Coupling During the Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean: A Case Study Using Satellite Observations. Pure appl. geophys. , 162 (8-9), 1643–1672.
Holbach, H. M., & Bourassa, M. A. (2014). The Effects of Gap-Wind-Induced Vorticity, the Monsoon Trough, and the ITCZ on East Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 142 (3), 1312–1325.
Hart, R. E., Maue, R. N., & Watson, M. C. (2007). Estimating Local Memory of Tropical Cyclones through MPI Anomaly Evolution. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 135 (12), 3990–4005.
Holbach, H. M., Uhlhorn, E. W., & Bourassa, M. A. (2018). Off-Nadir SFMR Brightness Temperature Measurements in High-Wind Conditions. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. , 35 (9), 1865–1879.
Abstract: Wind and wave-breaking directions are investigated as potential sources of an asymmetry identified in off-nadir remotely sensed measurements of ocean surface brightness temperatures obtained by the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR) in high-wind conditions, including in tropical cyclones. Surface wind speed, which dynamically couples the atmosphere and ocean, can be inferred from SFMR ocean surface brightness temperature measurements using a radiative transfer model and an inversion algorithm. The accuracy of the ocean surface brightness temperature to wind speed calibration relies on accurate knowledge of the surface variables that are influencing the ocean surface brightness temperature. Previous studies have identified wind direction signals in horizontally polarized radiometer measurements in low to moderate (0�20 m s−1) wind conditions over a wide range of incidence angles. This study finds that the azimuthal asymmetry in the off-nadir SFMR brightness temperature measurements is also likely a function of wind direction and extends the results of these previous studies to high-wind conditions. The off-nadir measurements from the SFMR provide critical data for improving the understanding of the relationships between brightness temperature, surface wave�breaking direction, and surface wind vectors at various incidence angles, which is extremely useful for the development of geophysical model functions for instruments like the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD).
Nagamani, P. V., Ali, M. M., Goni, G. J., Udaya Bhaskar, T. V. S., McCreary, J. P., Weller, R. A., et al. (2016). Heat content of the Arabian Sea Mini Warm Pool is increasing. Atmos. Sci. Lett. , 17 (1), 39–42.
