Groenen, D. (2018). The Effects of Climate Change on the Pests and Diseases of Coffee Crops in Mesoamerica. Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting , 6 (3).
Abstract: Coffee is an in-demand commodity that is being threatened by climate change. Increasing temperatures and rainfall variability are predicted in the region of Mexico and Central America (Mesoamerica). This region is plagued with pests and diseases that have already caused millions of dollars in damages and losses to the coffee industry.This paper examines three pests that negatively affect coffee plants: the coffee borer beetle, the black twig borer,and nematodes. In addition, this paper examines three diseases that can destroy coffee crops: bacterial blight,coffee berry disease, and coffee leaf rust. This paper will review the literature on how these pests and diseases are predicted to affect coffee crops under climate change models. In general, increased temperatures will increase the spread of pest and disease in coffee crops. Projected decreased rainfall in Honduras and Nicaragua may decrease the spread of pest and disease. However, these are complex issues which still require further study.
Nyadjro, E. S., Rydbeck, A. V., Jensen, T. G., Richman, J. G., & Shriver, J. F. (2020). On the Generation and Salinity Impacts of Intraseasonal Westward Jets in the Equatorial Indian Ocean. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans , 125 (6), e2020JC016066.
Abstract: While westerly winds dominate the equatorial Indian Ocean and generate the well‐known eastward flowing Wyrtki Jets during boreal spring and fall, there is evidence of a strong westward surface jet during winter that is swifter than eastward currents during that season. A weaker westward jet is found in summer. In this study, we report the occurrence, characteristics, and intraseasonal variability of this westward jet and its impact on mixed layer salinity in the equatorial Indian Ocean using the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) reanalysis with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA). The westward jet typically occurs in the upper 50 m, above an eastward flowing equatorial undercurrent, with peak westward volume transport of approximately −8 Sv. The westward jet builds up gradually, decays rapidly, and is primarily forced by local intraseasonal wind stress anomalies generated by atmospheric intraseasonal convection. Westward acceleration of the jet occurs when the dominant intraseasonal westward wind anomaly is not balanced by the zonal pressure gradient (ZPG) force. The intraseasonal westward jet generates strong horizontal advection and is the leading cause of mixed layer freshening in the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Without it, a saltier mixed layer would persist and weaken any barrier layers. Existing barrier layers are strengthened following the passage of freshwater‐laden westward jets. Deceleration of the westward jet occurs when the eastward ZPG becomes increasingly important and the westward intraseasonal wind anomalies weaken. A rapid reversal of atmospheric intraseasonal convection‐driven surface winds eventually terminates the westward jet.
Karmakar, N., & Misra, V. (2019). The Relation of Intraseasonal Variations With Local Onset and Demise of the Indian Summer Monsoon. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. , 124 (5), 2483–2506.
Abstract: Two of the most important hydroclimatic features of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall are its onset/demise and Intraseasonal Oscillations (ISOs) manifested by the active‐break cycles. In this study, we aim to understand the quantitative association between these two phenomena. An objective definition of local onset/demise of the ISM based on more than a century‐long India Meteorological Department (IMD) rain‐gauge observation is taken into consideration. Using multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) we isolate northward propagating low‐ (20–60 days; LF‐ISO) and northwestward propagating high‐ (10–20 days; HF‐ISO) frequency ISOs from the daily ISM rainfall. Our results suggest that a large number of local onset (59%) and demise (62%) events occur during positive developing phases and positive decaying phases of two ISOs, respectively, with phase‐locking between LF‐ISO and HF‐ISO being particularly important. Local onset is largely associated with favorable phases of ISOs across India except for LF‐ISO over eastern India and HF‐ISO over western Ghats and central India (CI). We find that local demise is more coherent with the ISO phases, especially with HF‐ISO across the domain. We performed a case study to understand large‐scale association with the onset of the ISM over CI. In 44 of total 58 cases (1948–2005), when CI onset occurred during favorable LF‐ISO or HF‐ISO phase, they are either linked with a northward propagation of convection from the equator in LF‐ISO timescale (28 cases) or westward propagating structures from the western Pacific in HF‐ISO timescale (27 cases).
Timko, P. G., Arbic, B. K., Hyder, P., Richman, J. G., Zamudio, L., O'Dea, E., et al. (2019). Assessment of shelf sea tides and tidal mixing fronts in a global ocean model. Ocean Modelling , 136 , 66–84.
Abstract: Tidal mixing fronts, which represent boundaries between stratified and tidally mixed waters, are locations of enhanced biological activity. They occur in summer shelf seas when, in the presence of strong tidal currents, mixing due to bottom friction balances buoyancy production due to seasonal heat flux. In this paper we examine the occurrence and fidelity of tidal mixing fronts in shelf seas generated within a global 3-dimensional simulation of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) that is simultaneously forced by atmospheric fields and the astronomical tidal potential. We perform a first order assessment of shelf sea tides in global HYCOM through comparison of sea surface temperature, sea surface tidal elevations, and tidal currents with observations. HYCOM was tuned to minimize errors in M2 sea surface heights in deep water. Over the global coastal and shelf seas (depths <200 m) the area-weighted root mean square error of the M2 sea surface amplitude in HYCOM represents 35% of the 50 cm root mean squared M2 sea surface amplitude when compared to satellite constrained models TPXO8 and FES2014. HYCOM and the altimeter constrained tidal models TPXO8 and FES2014 exhibit similar skill in reproducing barotropic tidal currents estimated from in-situ current meter observations. Through comparison of a global HYCOM simulation with tidal forcing to a global HYCOM simulation with no tides, and also to previous regional studies of tidal mixing fronts in shelf seas, we demonstrate that HYCOM with embedded tides exhibits quite high skill in reproducing known tidal mixing fronts in shelf seas. Our results indicate that the amount of variability in the location of the tidal mixing fronts in HYCOM, estimated using the Simpson-Hunter parameter, is consistent with previous studies when the differences in the net downward heat flux, on a global scale, are taken into account. We also provide evidence of tidal mixing fronts on the North West Australian Shelf for which we have been unable to find references in the existing scientific literature.
Misra, V., Selman, C., Waite, A. J., Bastola, S., & Mishra, A. (2017). Terrestrial and Ocean Climate of the 20th Century. In E. P. Chassignet, J. W. Jones, V. Misra, & J. Obeysekera (Eds.), Florida's climate: Changes, variations, & impacts (pp. 485–509). Gainesville, FL: Florida Climate Institute.
Zavala-Hidalgo, J., Pares-Sierra, A., & Ochoa, J. (2002). Seasonal variability of the temperature and heat fluxes in the Gulf of Mexico. Atmosfera , 15 (2), 81–104.
Conlon, K. C., Kintziger, K. W., Jagger, M., Stefanova, L., Uejio, C. K., & Konrad, C. (2016). Working with Climate Projections to Estimate Disease Burden: Perspectives from Public Health. Int J Environ Res Public Health , 13 (8).
Abstract: There is interest among agencies and public health practitioners in the United States (USA) to estimate the future burden of climate-related health outcomes. Calculating disease burden projections can be especially daunting, given the complexities of climate modeling and the multiple pathways by which climate influences public health. Interdisciplinary coordination between public health practitioners and climate scientists is necessary for scientifically derived estimates. We describe a unique partnership of state and regional climate scientists and public health practitioners assembled by the Florida Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) program. We provide a background on climate modeling and projections that has been developed specifically for public health practitioners, describe methodologies for combining climate and health data to project disease burden, and demonstrate three examples of this process used in Florida.
Baigorria, G., Jones, J., Shin, D., Mishra, A., & Ingram, K. T., Jones, J. W., O'Brien, J. J., Roncoli, M. C., Fraisse, C., Breuer, N. E., Bartels, W.-L., Zierden, D. F., Letson, D. (2007). Assessing uncertainties in crop model simulations using daily bias-corrected Regional Circulation Model outputs. Clim. Res. , 34 , 211–222.
Michael, J. - P. (2014). On Initializing CGCMs for Seasonal Predictability of ENSO . Ph.D. thesis, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL.
Brolley, J. M. (2004). Experimental Forest Fire Threat Forecast . Master's thesis, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL.
Abstract: Climate shifts due to El Niño (warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and La Niña (cooler than normal) are well known and used to predict seasonal temperature and precipitation trends up to a year in advance. These climate shifts are particularly strong in the Southeastern United States. During the winter and spring months, El Niño brings plentiful rainfall and cooler temperatures to Florida. Recent los Niños occurred in 1997-1998, one of the strongest on record, with another mild El Niño in 2002-2003. Conversely, La Niña is associated with warm and dry winter and spring seasons in Florida. Temperature and precipitation affect wildfire activity; interannual drivers of climate, like ENSO, have an influence on wildfire activity. Studies have shown a strong connection between wildfires in Florida and La Niña, with the more than double the average number of acres burned (O'Brien et al 2002; Jones et al. 1999). While this relationship is important and lends a degree of predictability to the relative activity of future wildfire seasons, human activities such as effective suppression, prescribed burns, and ignition can play an equally important role in wildfire risks. This study forecasts wildfire potential rather than actual burn statistics to avoid complications due to human interactions. This wildfire threat potential is based upon the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI). The KBDI is well suited as a seasonal forecast medium. It is based on daily temperature and rainfall measurements and responds to changing climate and weather conditions on time scales of days to months, and this index is high during dry warm weather patterns and low during wet cool patterns. The KBDI has been widely used in forestry in the Southeastern United States since its development in the 1970's, with foresters and firefighters have a good level of familiarity with the index and its applications. The KBDI is calculated daily and used as an index by wildfire managers. This study calculates wildfire potential using a statistical method known as bootstrapping. Many datasets contain approximately a half-century of data, and the limited dataset will introduce biases. Bootstrapping can remedy bias by simulating thousands of years of data, which retain the climatology for the past half-century. Bootstrapping preserves the mean but not the variance. By incorporating this method, this study will improve long-term forest fire risks that will become useful for those living or working near forests and assist in managing forests and wildfires. The Southeast Climate Consortium will also be issuing wildfire risk forecast for Florida and parts of Alabama and Georgia based on ENSO phase and the KBDI. Climate information and ENSO predictions are better served by incorporating them with known climate indices that are routinely used in the forestry sector. Wildfire managers and foresters operationally use the KBDI to monitor and predict wildfire activity (O'Brien et al. 2002). Meteorologists at the Florida Division of Forestry have demonstrated the validity of the KBDI as an indicator of potential wildfire activity in Florida (Long 2004). They showed that the value of the KBDI is not as important as the deviation from the monthly average. The wildfire risk forecast is based on the probabilities of KBDI anomalies and will present the probabilities associated with large deviations from the seasonal normal.
