Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies

Abstract: Recent results using wind and sea surface temperature data from satellites and high-resolution coupled models suggest that mesoscale ocean-atmosphere interactions affect the locations and evolution of storms and seasonal precipitation over continental regions such as the western US and Europe. The processes responsible for this coupling are difficult to verify due to the paucity of accurate air-sea turbulent heat and moisture flux data. These fluxes are currently derived by combining satellite measurements that are not coincident and have differing and relatively low spatial resolutions, introducing sampling errors that are largest in regions with high spatial and temporal variability. Observational errors related to sensor design also contribute to increased uncertainty. Leveraging recent advances in sensor technology, we here describe a satellite mission concept, FluxSat, that aims to simultaneously measure all variables necessary for accurate estimation of ocean-atmosphere turbulent heat and moisture fluxes and capture the effect of oceanic mesoscale forcing. Sensor design is expected to reduce observational errors of the latent and sensible heat fluxes by almost 50%. FluxSat will improve the accuracy of the fluxes at spatial scales critical to understanding the coupled ocean-atmosphere boundary layer system, providing measurements needed to improve weather forecasts and climate model simulations.

Abstract: Estimating interannual variability in carbon export is a key goal of many marine biogeochemical studies. However, due to variations in export mechanisms between regions, generalized models used to estimate global patterns in export often fail when used for intra-regional analysis. We present here a region-specific model of export production for the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) parameterized using intensive Lagrangian process studies conducted during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm and neutral phases by the CCE Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program. We find that, contrary to expectations from prominent global algorithms, export efficiency (e-ratio = export / primary productivity) is positively correlated with temperature and negatively correlated with net primary productivity (NPP). We attribute these results to the substantial horizontal advection found within the region, and verify this assumption by using a Lagrangian particle tracking model to estimate water mass age. We further suggest that sinking particles in the CCE are comprised of a recently-produced, rapidly-sinking component (likely mesozooplankton fecal pellets) and a longer-lived, slowly-sinking component that is likely advected long distances prior to export. We determine a new algorithm for estimating particle export in the CCE from NPP (Export = 0.08 · NPP + 72 mg C m-2 d-1). We apply this algorithm to a two-decade long time series of NPP in the CCE to estimate spatial and interannual variability across multiple ENSO phases. Reduced export during the warm anomaly of 2014-2015 and El Niño 2015-2016 resulted primarily from decreased export in the coastal upwelling region of the CCE; the oligotrophic offshore region exhibited comparatively low seasonal and interannual variability in flux. The model resolves intra-regional patterns of in situ export measurements, and provides a valuable contrast to global export models.

Abstract: The ratio of dissolved oxygen to argon in seawater is frequently employed to estimate rates of net community production (NCP) in the oceanic mixed layer. The in situ O2/Ar‐based method accounts for many physical factors that influence oxygen concentrations, permitting isolation of the biological oxygen signal produced by the balance of photosynthesis and respiration. However, this technique traditionally relies upon several assumptions when calculating the mixed‐layer O2/Ar budget, most notably the absence of vertical fluxes of O2/Ar and the principle that the air‐sea gas exchange of biological oxygen closely approximates net productivity rates. Employing a Lagrangian study design and leveraging data outputs from a regional physical oceanographic model, we conducted in situ measurements of O2/Ar in the California Current Ecosystem in spring 2016 and summer 2017 to evaluate these assumptions within a �worst‐case� field environment. Quantifying vertical fluxes, incorporating nonsteady state changes in O2/Ar, and comparing NCP estimates evaluated over several day versus longer timescales, we find differences in NCP metrics calculated over different time intervals to be considerable, also observing significant potential effects from vertical fluxes, particularly advection. Additionally, we observe strong diel variability in O2/Ar and NCP rates at multiple stations. Our results reemphasize the importance of accounting for vertical fluxes when interpreting O2/Ar‐derived NCP data and the potentially large effect of nonsteady state conditions on NCP evaluated over shorter timescales. In addition, diel cycles in surface O2/Ar can also bias interpretation of NCP data based on local productivity and the time of day when measurements were made.

Abstract: Enhanced vertical carbon transport (gravitational sinking and subduction) at mesoscale ocean fronts may explain the demonstrated imbalance of new production and sinking particle export in coastal upwelling ecosystems. Based on flux assessments from 238U:234Th disequilibrium and sediment traps, we found 2 to 3 times higher rates of gravitational particle export near a deep-water front (305 mg Cm-2d-1) compared with adjacent water or to mean (nonfrontal) regional conditions. Elevated particle flux at the front was mechanistically linked to Fe-stressed diatoms and high mesozooplankton fecal pellet production. Using a data assimilative regional ocean model fit to measured conditions, we estimate that an additional approximately 225 mg Cm-2d-1 was exported as subduction of particle-rich water at the front, highlighting a transport mechanism that is not captured by sediment traps and is poorly quantified by most models and in situ measurements. Mesoscale fronts may be responsible for over a quarter of total organic carbon sequestration in the California Current and other coastal upwelling ecosystems.

Abstract: We determined the net rate of biogenic silica (bSiO2) production and estimated the diatom contribution to new production and organic matter export in the Costa Rica Dome during summer 2010. The shallow thermocline significantly reduces bSiO2 dissolution rates below the mixed layer, leading to significant enhancement of bSiO2 relative to organic matter (silicate-pump condition). This may explain why deep export of bSiO2 in this region is elevated by an order of magnitude relative to comparable systems. Diatom carbon, relative to autotrophic carbon, was low (<3%); however, the contribution of diatoms to new production averaged 3 and 13% using independent approaches. The 4-old discrepancy between methods may be explained by a low average C:Si ratio ( approximately 1.4) for the net produced diatom C relative to the net produced bSiO2. We speculate that this low production ratio is not the result of reduced C, but may arise from a significant contribution of non-diatom silicifying organisms to bSiO2 production. The contribution of diatoms to organic matter export was minor (5.7%). These results, and those of the broader project, suggest substantial food-web transformation of diatom organic matter in the euphotic zone, which creates enriched bSiO2 relative to organic matter within the exported material.