2013 Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 - November 30) predictions and observed activity.
Forecasting Group |
Forecasting Method |
Forecast Issue Date |
Total Named Storms (Tropical Storms + Hurricanes) |
Hurricanes |
Accumulated Cyclone Energy |
FSU COAPS |
Dynamical |
5/30/13 |
15 (70% chance of 12-17) |
8 (70% chance of 5-10) |
135 |
NOAA |
Hybrid |
5/23/13 |
70% chance of 13-20 |
70% chance of 7-11 |
70% chance of 120%-205% of median |
UK Met Office |
Dynamical |
5/15/13 |
14 (70% chance of 10-18) |
9 (70% chance of 4-14) |
130 (70% chance of 76-184) |
Colorado State University |
Statistical |
6/3/13 |
18 |
9 |
165 |
Tropical Storm Risk |
Statistical |
4/5/13 |
15 (+/-4.1) |
7.5 (+/-2.8) |
131 (+/-55) |
Weather Services International |
Statistical |
4/8/13 |
16 |
9 |
N/A |
2013 Observed |
N/A |
N/A |
13 |
2 |
33 |
Average Observed per Season, 1981-2011 |
N/A |
N/A |
12.3 |
6.5 |
104.4 |
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) also releases a forecast for the abbreviated August 1 - October 31 peak Atlantic hurricane season. The IRI forecast can be found at http://iri.columbia.edu/forecast/tc_fcst/north_atlantic/.
2012 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and observed activity.
Forecasting Group |
Forecasting Method |
Forecast Issue Date |
Total Named Storms (Tropical Storms + Hurricanes) |
Hurricanes |
Accumulated Cyclone Energy |
FSU COAPS |
Dynamical |
5/30/12 |
13 (70% chance of 10-16) |
7 (70% chance of 5-9) |
122 |
NOAA |
Hybrid |
8/9/12 |
70% chance of 12-17 |
70% chance of 5-8 |
70% chance of 75%-135% of the median (which is 87.5 for 1950-2000) |
UK Met Office |
Dynamical |
5/24/12 |
10 (70% chance of 7-13) |
N/A |
90 (70% chance of 28-152) |
Colorado State University |
Statistical |
4/4/12 |
10 |
4 |
70 |
Tropical Storm Risk |
Statistical |
5/23/12 |
12.7 (+/-3.9) |
5.7 (+/-2.7) |
98 (+/-52) |
2012 Observed |
N/A |
N/A |
19 |
10 |
123 |
Average Observed per Season, 1981-2010 |
N/A |
N/A |
12 |
6 |
104 |
2011 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and observed activity.
Forecasting Group |
Forecasting Method |
Forecast Issue Date |
Total Named Storms (Tropical Storms + Hurricanes) |
Hurricanes |
Accumulated Cyclone Energy |
FSU COAPS |
Dynamical |
6/1/11 |
17 (70% chance of 14-20) |
9 (70% chance of 7-10) |
163 (70% chance of 130-183) |
NOAA |
Hybrid |
5/19/11 |
12-18 |
6-10 |
105%-200% of 1981-2010 median |
UK Met Office |
Dynamical |
5/26/11 |
13 (70% chance of 10-17) |
N/A |
151 (70% chance 82-212) |
Colorado State University |
Statistical |
6/1/11 |
16 |
9 |
160 |
Tropical Storm Risk |
Statistical |
6/6/11 |
14.1 (+/-3.4) |
7.6 (+/-2.4) |
123 (+/-48) |
Observed |
N/A |
N/A |
18 (19 total tropical storms) |
7 |
123 |
2010 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and observed activity.
Forecasting Group |
Forecasting Method |
Forecast Issue Date |
Named Storms |
Hurricanes |
Accumulated Cyclone Energy |
FSU COAPS |
Dynamical |
6/1/10 |
17 |
10 |
156 |
NOAA |
Hybrid |
5/27/10 |
14-23 |
8-14 |
155-270% of median |
UK Met Office |
Dynamical |
6/17/10 |
20 (70% chance of 10-17) |
N/A |
204 (70% chance of 90-319) |
Colorado State University |
Statistical |
6/2/10 |
18 |
10 |
85 |
Tropical Storm Risk |
Statistical |
6/4/10 |
17.7 (+/-3.5) |
9.5 (+/-2.5) |
182 (+/-48) |
Observed |
N/A |
N/A |
19 |
12 |
165 |
2009 Atlantic hurricane season predictions and observed activity.
Forecasting Group |
Forecasting Method |
Forecast Issue Date |
Named Storms |
Hurricanes |
Accumulated Cyclone Energy |
FSU COAPS |
Dynamical |
6/2/09 |
8 |
4 |
65 |
NOAA |
Hybrid |
5/21/09 |
9-14 |
4-7 |
65-130% of median |
UK Met Office |
Dynamical |
6/18/09 |
6 (70% chance of 3-9) |
N/A |
60 (70% chance of 40-80) |
Colorado State University |
Statistical |
6/2/09 |
11 |
5 |
85 |
Tropical Storm Risk |
Statistical |
6/4/09 |
10.9 |
5.2 |
69 |
Observed |
N/A |
N/A |
9 |
3 |
52 |